NFL analytics expert projects Baltimore Ravens win total for 2024 season

For much of last season, the Ravens were the best team in the AFC, if not the NFL. But on a chilly day in January, the Chiefs grabbed the conference title, beating in its home stadium.

The 17-10 loss to the Chiefs probably still stings, even in June. Lamar Jackson is back and the Ravens gifted him running back Derrick Henry in free agency. You can imagine Baltimore going even harder in the running game. Plus, the defense addressed some needs in the draft and free agency.

So what may be in store, recordwise, for the team this season?

Cynthia Frelund, an analytics expert for NFL Network, is predicting 10.2 victories for Baltimore and a runner-up finish in the AFC North. Frelund is projecting the win totals for all 32 league teams. She wrote that she based the prediction formula on a mixture of stats, history and trends.

“Using the projected 53-man rosters as of May 14, I ran 150,000 simulations for all 272 regular-season games,” she wrote.

She also noted, “Remember, these simulations account for many contextualized data points that have been proven to correlate to wins and losses based on historical football games that were actually played.”

Baltimore Ravens odds, predictions for 2024

• Win Total: under 11.0 (-115)
• Make Playoffs: -320
• Win Division: +125
• Win Conference: +480
• Win Super Bowl: +900

Here’s how Frelund assesses the Ravens:

“The Ravens’ schedule slides them under the Bengals in terms of median win projection and renders them a more probable wild-card team than division winner. Again, it’s (based on May stats) so let’s all take a deep breath.

“The AFC North currently projects as the most difficult division in the NFL, which is not shocking, but makes for a lot of potential internal disruption among these four teams. For fun, I modeled out which game on Baltimore’s schedule forecasts to be the most pivotal, and, as of right now, it looks like the outcome of Ravens-Eagles in Week 13, just ahead of Baltimore’s bye, is the one most likely to determine the Ravens’ playoff picture.”

The Ravens offense could look different this fall with the presence of Henry. Consider that the presence of Henry could make Jackson an even more valuable runner. In Jackson’s time in Baltimore, the Ravens haven’t had a 1,000-yard back since 2019. Defenses will have to focus on Henry and the play-action pass even more.

Meanwhile, the Ravens concentrated on their own defense in free agency. The biggest signing was keeping defensive tackle Justin Madubuike. The former Texas A&M standout had 13 sacks last fall. That topped all interior pass rushers in the NFL.

And speaking of defenses, the Ravens lost their coordinator, when Mike Macdonald took the head coaching job with Seattle. Baltimore promoted Zach Orr, who at 31 is the second-youngest coordinator in the league. The defense is personal to Orr. After all, he started out as a Ravens linebacker. Now he’s the boss.

If you’re curious, Frelund and her formula believes that the two-time defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs will win 10.9 games. That tops the AFC. Then, it’s the Bengals, with a healthy Joe Burrow, with 10.5. The Texans, in her projections. will come in third with 10.3 victories.

Frelund’s formula has the Dolphins and Ravens tied. The Bills are sixth at 10 victories followed by the Jets at 9.6. Those are the seven playoff teams based on Frelund’s formula. Two of the four projected playoff teams are from the AFC North — Cincinnati and Baltimore.

Check out all of Frelund’s predictions here. And for all of On3.com’s NFL coverage, click it here.