NFL analytics expert projects Buffalo Bills 2024 win total

An NFL analytics expert just revealed her projected win total for the Buffalo Bills ahead of the 2024 season. Cynthia Frelund of the NFL Network says the Bills will have a win total of 10 games, the sixth-best total in the AFC. The Bills have the second-best win total in the AFC East. The Miami Dolphins have the best in the division, sitting at 10.2.

“For the past three seasons, the Bills have ranked in the bottom third in terms of win-total variance in May. It’s not super surprising that Buffalo — a team with an elite QB but a squad that has experienced significant turnover on both sides of the ball (Stefon Diggs, Jordan Poyer, Tre’Davious White, Micah Hyde, et al) — could, with equally realistic probability, win the division or end up third,” Frelund wrote.

“The Bills follow up their Week 3 Monday night clash against the Jaguars with a challenging three-game road trip (Ravens, Texans, Jets) that drove down their win probability by almost 0.3 games from before my models factored in their 2024 schedule — and that’s not even their hardest stretch! Their most difficult sequence occurs from Weeks 11-15: Chiefs, bye, 49ers, at Rams, at Lions.”

Last year, the Bills finished the regular season with an 11-6 record and won the AFC East for the fourth consecutive year. However, it was another disappointing playoff run, losing to the Kansas City Chiefs in the divisional round. It’s the third consecutive season the Bills have lost in the second round of the playoffs.

Buffalo Bills look to replace Stefon Diggs with Keon Coleman

This offseason, the Bills lost star wide receiver Stefon Diggs as he was traded to the Houston Texans. The move led to the Bills drafting former Florida State wide receiver Keon Coleman in the second round of this year’s draft.

“I think his play style (is) what we needed in our offense,” Bills QB Josh Allen told NFL Network Insiders Mike Garafolo and Tom Pelissero last month. “Talking with our offensive coordinator (Joe Brady), our quarterbacks coach (Ronald Curry), (general manager) Brandon Beane and, obviously, coach (Sean) McDermott, a guy that’s a big-bodied guy and can go win one a back-shoulder fade and not afraid to be a physical wide receiver.

“I think you pair him with some of the guys we have in our room right now, I think Mack Hollins has been such a great addition so far to that room with his mentality, his mindset is infectious to others. Curtis Samuel, he’s been showing up every single day ready to work. … You start pairing those guys up with Dawson (Knox) and Coleman in this mix now, we’re gonna have a pretty solid group that works together.”