NFL analytics expert projects Las Vegas Raiders 2024 win total

The Raiders start this season with a newish head coach and a likely new quarterback. But will they be any better, recordwise, than in 2023?

Las Vegas finished 8-9 last season and missed the playoffs for the second straight season. It was a crazy fall, with owner Mark Davis canning head coach Josh McDaniels on Halloween. The Raiders promoted linebackers coach Antonio Pierce to run the show, then took the interim tag off his name for this season.

Vegas definitely played better under Pierce, with the Raiders going 5-4 after Halloween. But it remains to be seen if the team will post something better in 2024.

Cynthia Frelund, an analytics expert for NFL Network, predicts that the Raiders will win 6.4 times. That victory total ranks 13th amongst AFC teams. It’s third best among the AFC West squads.

Frelund recently predicted the win totals for all 32 league teams. It’s a fun experiment during the off season. She wrote that the predictions were a result of model that uses a mixture of stats, history and trends.

“Using the projected 53-man rosters as of May 14, I ran 150,000 simulations for all 272 regular-season games,” she wrote.

She also noted, “Remember, these simulations account for many contextualized data points that have been proven to correlate to wins and losses based on historical football games that were actually played.”

Las Vegas Raiders odd/predictions for 2024

• Win Total: under 6.5 (+130)
• Make Playoffs: +260
• Win Division: +1000
• Win Conference: +5000
• Win Super Bowl: +8000

Frelund writes of the Raiders:

“The Raiders have an interesting amount of upside this season, and so my gut tells me my model is underestimating them. I think there are two primary reasons why they could have more success than my model projects. First, they have favorable spacing between some of their hardest games; for example, they’re at Cincinnati in Week 9, but then have their bye before taking a trip to Miami in Week 11.

“While the slate from Weeks 6-11 is undoubtedly tough, with games against the Steelers, at Rams and versus the Chiefs also included in that mix, it would’ve been that much harder without the week-long break.”

She added: “the second reason is that they have nearly equal win odds in the games before and after their Week 10 bye, meaning one half of their schedule isn’t more lopsided than the other. The main explanation for why my model is down on the Raiders is the uncertainty under center. Vegas will likely need at least average QB play to be competitive in the AFC playoff race.”

The starting quarterback will either be Gardner Minshew, a journeyman who started most of last season for the Colts, or Aidan O’Connell, the Raiders fourth-round pick from 2023. O’Connell started 10 games last season after Vegas moved on from Jimmy Garoppolo. Reports out of Vegas suggested that Minshew was taking the most reps with the first-team offense during OTAs and minicamp.

The Raiders will need to find an adequate replacement for running back Josh Jacobs, who led the NFL in rushing in 2022. Jacobs now is with the Packers. Zamir White is the likely starter. Vegas also signed Alexander Mattison and Ameer Abdullah. The big defensive signee is tackle Christian Wilkins, who came over from the Dolphins. He’ll play alongside Maxx Crosby.

The Raiders made an interesting selection at the top of their draft, taking Georgia tight end Brock Bowers at No. 13. Vegas didn’t need a tight end, but Bowers was too good to pass up. We already know that Davante Adams will be the top target for whoever starts at quarterback.

For the big NFL picture, Frelund predicted that the Chiefs will continue to rule the AFC. Her model said that the two-time defending Super Bowl champions will win 10.9 games. After KC, it’s the Bengals, with Joe Burrow returning from wrist surgery. Frelund predicts 10.5 wins for Cincinnati. The Texans will come in third with 10.3 victories.

Frelund’s formula then has the Dolphins and Ravens tied at 10.2 wins. The Bills are sixth at 10 victories followed by the Jets at 9.6. Among the AFC West, the Chiefs are first, way ahead of everybody else. The Chargers are second (8.2), followed by the Raiders and Broncos (5.7).

You can check out all of Frelund’s predictions here. And for all of On3.com’s NFL coverage, click it here.