NFL analytics expert projects Minnesota Vikings 2024 win total

The 2024 season like a big renovation project for the Vikings, what with the loss of quarterback Kirk Cousins and sack master Danielle Hunter.

They signed Sam Darnold, a one-time first rounder, as a potential replacement for Cousins. Or maybe he’s a placeholder until former Michigan star J.J. McCarthy gets settled. Minnesota selected McCarthy with the 10th pick of the first round back in late April. He was the fifth quarterback off the board.

Whomever emerges as the starting quarterback can lean on receiver Justin Jefferson, who now is the highest-paid receiver in NFL history.

Cynthia Frelund, an analytics expert with NFL Network, broke down projected win totals for all 32 teams. She’s predicting the Vikings at 7.2 victories, which doesn’t make them a playoff contender. Frelund used a prediction formula based on stats, history and trends. In other words, none of it is based on gut feelings.

“Using the projected 53-man rosters as of May 14, I ran 150,000 simulations for all 272 regular-season games,” she wrote.

She also noted “remember, these simulations account for many contextualized data points that have been proven to correlate to wins and losses based on historical football games that were actually played.”

Here’s what the odds say about Minnesota Vikings

• Win Total: over 6.5 (-155)
• Make Playoffs: +270
• Win Division: +1100
• Win Conference: +4000
• Win Super Bowl: +8000

Frelund writes this about the Vikings:

Like New Orleans, Minnesota will abruptly face its most challenging four-game stretch of the year one week after the season kicks off. In the final three weeks of September, the Vikings will host the 49ers and Texans, then hit the rode for a Lambeau Field showdown with the Packers.

In the opening week of October, Minnesota heads to London for its international tilt against the Jets. And having mentioned the Pack a minute ago … The Vikings’ acquisition of Aaron Jones from their division rivals was big value add to Kevin O’Connell’s entire offense, not just the ground game. Last season, Jones had a receiving EPA of +7.2, which ranked 10th among RBs.”

Aside from Cousins, Minnesota will need to replace Hunter, who signed with the Texans. It made sentimental and financial sense for Hunter since he got a hefty contract to move back to his hometown. Hunter notched 16.5 sacks last season. The Vikings hope that rookie Dallas Turner, another first rounder, can fill some of the void.

Overall, Frelund placed the 49ers as the top team in the NFC with a projection of 11.2 wins. They’re just ahead of the Eagles, with 11.1 wins. She picks the Lions third with 10.6 wins and the Falcons fourth with 9.9. After all, they have a new head coach (Raheem Morris) and new quarterback. It will be tough for Vikings fans to see Atlanta win with their old QB.

Meanwhile, the final three playoff teams predicted in this early look at 2024 are the Packers at 9.8 wins, Rams at 9.2 and the Cowboys at 9.1. If you’re curious, this prediction has the Vikings last in the North.

You can check out all of Frelund’s predictions here. And check out On3.com’s NFL coverage here.