NFL.com releases list of 'dark horse' 2024 MVP candidates

With about a month to go before the NFL season starts, we can day dream about all those plays and the MVP candidates who show up in the biggest games. Maybe they win games with a nifty touchdown pass, a powerful off-tackle run or even an emphatic quarterback sack. But they’re there.

Judy Battista, senior national correspondent for NFL.com, did a creative exercise to come up with her MVP pre-season candidates. What happened if the obvious candidates weren’t the guys this year. Maybe it’s not Lamar Jackson or Patrick Mahomes. Maybe it’s the long-shot guys. Keep in mind that the last non-quarterback to win was running back Adrian Peterson, all the way back in 2012.

“They might be quarterbacks, but maybe not the ones we expect,” Battista wrote. “They might even be — gasp! — a non-quarterback. … Has the era of the non-quarterback MVP passed forever? Maybe, and any projection of even long-shot MVP candidates has to be realistic and include a few quarterbacks of the non-Mahomes vintage. But we want to keep hope alive for everyone else on the field, too.”

1. Jared Goff QB Detroit

Goff, who was a Super Bowl for the Rams, has found new life in Detroit. And the Lions are a hot team in the league. They reached the NFC title game in January. So bump their goal to the Super Bowl. And it likfely would take an NFL MVP effort from Goff to get them there.

Battista wrote: “With receiver Jameson Williams poised to make a big leap after an offseason free of injury recovery or gambling suspension, and with Amon-Ra St. Brown locked in with a new contract, Goff could finally put himself in the conversation as among the game’s very best. “

2. Tyreek Hill WR Miami

Hill, the dynamic Dolphin, got passes as highest-paid receiver in the offseason. Miami could still give him a boost. Or, Hill can put up numbers this fall to make the team pay him more. Even with an ankle injury last last season, Hill led the NFL in receiving with 1,799 yards. The Dolphins offense is perfect for big stats.

Battista pointed out that a receiver never has won an NFL MVP trophy. Is it time? “Staying healthy through 17 games is the challenge for Hill,” Battista wrote. “And it would help if the Dolphins’ offense … does not fade down the stretch as it did in 2023.”

3. Christian McCaffrey RB 49ers

You’d think the best running back on perhaps the best NFL team would be an MVP candidate. McCaffrey did win NFL Offensive Player of the Year for last season. Maybe he can trade for a better trophy.

“It won’t hurt his chances that he is on a contending team that will almost certainly be playing meaningful games down the stretch, when voters are deciding their votes,” says Battista. “Running backs have been devalued in the NFL, but McCaffrey is special enough to stand out. “

4. Kyler Murray QB Cardinals

Now Murray definitely is a dark horse NFL MVP candidate given that his Cardinals were near the bottom of the league the past two seasons. But Murray is healthy again. Battista pointed out that a late four-game stretch in 2023 could be a microcosm of what’s to come. Murray completed 70.3 percent of his passes for 935 yards as the Cardinals averaged 414.3 yards per game.

“When Murray is healthy, he’s one of the most thrilling players in football,” Battista wrote. “The Cardinals will have to win a lot more games for Murray to catch voters’ eyes, but if Murray can pick up where he left off last year, and if Harrison explodes in his rookie season, Murray could at least position himself for future MVP consideration.”

5. Micah Parsons DE Cowboys

Parsons, the Cowboys hybrid defensive end, definitely is an out-of-the-box NFL MVP candidate. He impacts games by rushing a quarterback. Sometimes he gets an emphatic, third-down sack. Other times, it’s just a QB hurry. But it’s difficult for a defender to get attention.

Battista calls Parsons the “longest of long shots,” noting that the last defender to win NFL MVP was Lawrence Taylor four decades ago. But Battista believes new Cowboys defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer could be key for Parsons to take the next step.

6. CJ Stroud QB Texans

Stroud, the No. 2 pick of last year’s draft, definitely charmed the league last fall. He took a dismal Texans team and helped turn them into division winners. The Ravens shut them down in the second round of the playoffs, but not before Houston gave many reasons that the team will be contenders for years to come.

Battista isn’t even sure she should use a dark-horse NFL MVP tag on Stroud, especially now that the Texans gifted him Stefon Diggs. “Stroud is already on the MVP radar,” Battista wrote. “Big play in the Texans’ slate of prime-time games will elevate him into the conversation quickly, and he will probably stay there for years to come. 

7. Tua Tagovailoa QB Dolphins

Tagovailoa plays in an offense that could generate big stats. Now, the quarterback needs to stay alive longer in the NFL playoffs for the MVP talk to stick. Otherwise, it’ll always just be projection. Tua T used martial arts last off season to help his game. These past few weeks, he’s added weight to make sure he can take the pounding.

Battista says “if Tagovailoa can manage the delicate balancing act between being mobile and being healthy while still delivering the ball to two of the best receivers in the game, the numbers should get him back in the mix for the highest playing honor. For him to stay in the conversation, though, the Dolphins will have to avoid the late-season scoring difficulties that ultimately doomed them in ’23.”

8. Jordan Love QB Green Bay

So why not Love, who is headed into his second season as starter for the Packers. With Love, Green Bay caught fire late last season to earn the final playoff spot. The Packers then smashed the Cowboys in the first round and gave the 49ers a fight.

Battista calls Love a “bonus pick” for a dark-horse NFL MVP candidate. “The only thing that could get in his way is that the Packers would probably have to topple the Lions and Jared Goff at the top of the NFC North,” Battista wrote. “He, like Stroud, will not be a dark horse for very long, though.”

NFL training camps start in a month. To catch up on On3.com league coverage, click it here. To read all of Battista’s excellent list, click it here.