NFL Draft: Field Yates wonders if Bo Nix or Michael Penix Jr. could see 'massive fall' through first round

Field Yates, the NFL Draft analyst for ESPN, has identified the top four quarterbacks available. The quartet is an easy projection. But it’s a different scenario for either Bo Nix or Michael Penix Jr. In fact, both could slide.

Yates discussed his draft forecast Thursday with reporters who cover the NFL. As always, quarterbacks were the hot topic. Yates has Caleb Williams going to the Bears at No. 1. He projects Jayden Daniels to the Commanders with the second pick. Then the Patriots take Drake Maye. The Cardinals, in Yates’ opinion, break the quarterback streak at No. 4 by selecting receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. Then the Vikings trade with the Chargers and pick J.J. McCarthy at No. 5.

Then the drama starts. That’s unfortunate for Nix or Penix. Or maybe both.

“I would say this — there are four quarterbacks that I feel really good about going in the first round,” Yates said. “And there are two others where I think the range is just massive. And I think there’s a chance that (either) Bo Nix and Michael Penix Jr. goes in the first 15 picks. I think it would be unlikely that both of them go in the first 15 picks, but if either of them slides beyond that range …”

Yates said Penix and Nix, two of the winningest quarterbacks in college football over the last two seasons, could be this year’s Will Levis. If you recall, Levis was projected to be a lofty first round selection in last year’s NFL Draft. He was in Kansas City for the festivities. However, no team picked him in the first round. He flew home the next morning. The Titans selected him at the start of the second round. Then Levis became the starter in Tennessee by mid-season.

Yates said the key is what the Las Vegas Raiders do at No. 13. Then after that section of the NFL Draft, there aren’t teams in need of an elite rookie quarterback. In Yates’ mock draft, which was published this week, Penix is the odd man out of the first round. Yates projects Nix to the Broncos at No. 12. Then he believes the Raiders will pick up Penix in the second round at No. 36.

He surmises that the Rams might think about using a first round pick on a QB since Matthew Stafford is getting older. He even thinks that the Steelers might think a QB at No. 20.

“But the bigger point remains most teams in the back half of the first round are going be more inclined to fill those non-quarterback needs at the moment,” Yates said. “So I have said this publicly. I reiterated again here that Bo and Mike are two of the most difficult players for me to forecast exactly where they’ll go.”

He added, “They could go 12 or they could go 42. Neither would surprise me. … But that’s sort of innate to the quarterback position. … We have seen other quarterbacks that have experienced a similar fall, some out of the first round, some (ended up) the very last pick of the first round like Lamar Jackson in 2018.”