NFL Network analytics expert predicts Cleveland Browns 2024 win total

The Browns quarterback situation was horrific last season, with so many going down with injuries, including Deshaun Watson. Overall, Cleveland used five QBs.

Yet the Browns still made the playoffs, thanks, in part to the ageless Joe Flacco. The 38-year-old was home in New Jersey, out of football, when Cleveland called after Watson suffered a season-ending shoulder injury. Flacco went 4-1 down the stretch and earned NFL Comeback Player of the Year.

But the Browns’ fortunes rest on Watson’s surgically-repaired throwing shoulder. Watson is healthy now, but at least one NFL expert isn’t expecting a post-season run for Cleveland this coming season.

Cynthia Frelund, an analytics expert for NFL Network, predicts that the Browns will have 8.5 wins. It’s not that Cleveland is less talented than last season, when they made the playoffs for the first time since 2020. Its just that the Browns play in the powerhouse AFC North. And Cincinnati, Baltimore, Pittsburgh and Cleveland will beat each other up.

Frelund recently projected the win totals for all 32 league teams. She wrote that she based the prediction formula on a mixture of stats, history and trends.

“Using the projected 53-man rosters as of May 14, I ran 150,000 simulations for all 272 regular-season games,” she wrote.

She also noted, “Remember, these simulations account for many contextualized data points that have been proven to correlate to wins and losses based on historical football games that were actually played.”

Odds and predictions for Cleveland Browns in 2024

• Win Total: over 8.5 (-130)
• Make Playoffs: +160
• Win Division: +600
• Win Conference: +2000
• Win Super Bowl: +4000

This is how Frelund views the Browns’ situation for the fall.

“The Browns were dealt the NFL’s hardest schedule based on their opponents’ final 2023 records (.547). However, Browns fans fear not! Their slate isn’t as bleak as it might seem. I currently have Cleveland’s schedule as the fifth-hardest, but that outlook could become more favorable once the preseason starts, when we’ll hopefully get a chance to see how key offensive players are performing coming off injuries. The Browns’ final four games (Chiefs, at Bengals, Dolphins, at Ravens), which follow a trip to Pittsburgh in Week 14, are going to be a real test.

“In fact, that sequence currently ranks as the hardest final four games of any team in the league, per my models. But, again, that could change for the better. Another reason for optimism: the defense. That unit ranked top-two in passer rating, completion percentage allowed and QB pressures last season, creating a really solid win-total floor, especially given the Browns’ more favorable first five games to start the season.”

The Browns scrambled the quarterback depth chart in free agency. Flacco now backs up Anthony Richardson in Indianapolis. Meanwhile, Cleveland signed Jameis Winston as the primary backup for Watson. Plus, they signed Tyler Huntley, Lamar Jackson’s former backup in Baltimore. The Browns did keep Dorian Thompson Robinson, who was a rookie last season.

Watson still will be throwing to Amari Cooper. And the Browns, as they await Nick Chubb’s knee to heal, signed running backs D’onta Foreman and Nyheim Hines.

If the offense struggles, the defense still will remain strong. After all, the Browns feature pass rusher Myles Garrett, the reigning NFL Defensive Player of the Year.

Overall, Frelund and her formula predict that the two-time defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs will win 10.9 games. That tops the AFC. Then, it’s the Bengals, with Joe Burrow returning from wrist surgery. Frelund thinks 10.5 wins for Cincinnati. The Texans will come in third with 10.3 victories, according to the prediction models.

Frelund’s formula then has the Dolphins and Ravens tied at 10.2 wins. The Bills are sixth at 10 victories followed by the Jets at 9.6. Those are the seven playoff teams based on Frelund’s formula, at least as the NFL heads into a six-week break before training camps start. Two of the four projected playoff teams are from the AFC North — Cincinnati and Baltimore. And two playoff teams from last season — Cleveland and Pittsburgh — won’t go.

You can check out all of Frelund’s predictions here. And for all of On3.com’s NFL coverage, click it here.