NFL Network analytics expert predicts Pittsburgh Steelers win total for 2024 NFL season

It’s late May. And there’s nothing much Steelers fans can do right now other than ruminate over stuff like win totals. In spite of some big-time signings in the off season, one analytics expert isn’t optimistic on Pittsburgh making the playoffs.

Cynthia Frelund, an analytics expert at NFL Network, delved deep into the schedules of all 32 teams. The league released them this week. Then she studied all personnel, including the draft choices, who gathered for rookie camps earlier this month. Then she came up with a ranking based on her win projections. The top seven teams in each conference make the playoffs. She ranks the Steelers as eighth and outside looking in.

And these rankings weren’t based on whims. Rather, Frelund revealed that she ran 150,000 simulations for all 272 games this season. The key part of the model were the players. And she said she used the rosters of each team as of May 14.

She wrote “remember, these simulations account for many contextualized data points that have been proven to correlate to wins and losses based on historical football games that were actually played.”

Frelund used odds from Caesars Sportsbook & Casino. And for the Steelers, took the over for wins, predicting 8.7.

Steelers odds for 2024 NFL season

• Win Total: over 8.5 (-110)
• Make Playoffs: +120
• Win Division: +650
• Win Conference: +2000
• Win Super Bowl: +4000

This is what she had to say about the Steelers.

“Get your popcorn ready! In Week 2 we get Russell Wilson back in Empower Field at Mile High. While that early-season revenge game will provide plenty to talk about in the comings months, it’s Pittsburgh’s second-half slate that really deserves attention. It’s an absolute nightmare.

“After their Week 9 bye, the Steelers’ final nine games are, in aggregate, more than twice as hard as their first eight (I measured the win probabilities and added them). Among those nine contests: all six of their division games, as well as heavyweight bouts with the Eagles (in Philadelphia) and Chiefs (on Christmas).”

So it wasn’t so much about the lack of talent, but the back-loaded schedule that had her predicting the Steelers will remain a 9-8 kind of team.

Pittsburgh made some major changes and put together a terrific draft. The Steelers scrapped their quarterback depth chart from last season, then signed Russell Wilson and traded for Justin Fields. They elevated their defense by signing linebacker Patrick Queen, formerly with the Ravens. The Steelers even addressed special teams needs, signing punter Cameron Johnston and return specialist Cordarrelle Patterson.

They also hired a new offensive coordinator. Arthur Smith lost his job as head coach of the Falcons. The Steelers then added him as their new OC.

So which were the teams ahead of the Steelers in these projections? No surprise here — the Chiefs, the two-time defending Super Bowl champions, top the AFC with a win projection of 10.9. The Bengals, presumably with a healthy Joe Burrow, are second at 10.5. Then come the upstart Texans at 10.3 victories.

The Dolphins and Ravens tied for fourth with each projected to win 10.2 games. The Bills are at an even 10, with the New York Jets at 9.6. That’s with a healthy Aaron Rodgers at quarterback.

The Steelers will kick off the third phase of OTAs this coming Monday. There will be non-contact 11-on-11 drills. But at least there will be football.

You may check out all of Frelund’s projections by clicking here.