UNC vs. San Diego State odds: Current line, win probability, final score prediction, how to watch in First Four

The First Four will open the 2025 NCAA Tournament in Dayton on Tuesday. The second matchup of the four, though, will be much-watched considering who will be playing for that No. 11 seed between North Carolina and San Diego State.

North Carolina (22-13) is the biggest story coming out of Selection Sunday as the Last Team In. Few thought the Tar Heels would get in after losing in the semifinals of the ACC Tournament with just one win in thirteen chances against Quad 1 competition per the latest in the NET Rankings. Still, UNC, who has talent but didn’t have the resumé to go with it, got in with a play-in game to justify their full-on spot in the field.

San Diego State (21-9) is then in the field for a fifth straight season as an at-large, who was the Second To Last Team In, out of the Mountain West. With that comes another highly-rated defense for the Aztecs. Now, SDSU will look for a fourth consecutive berth where they were competitive in the field coming this time out of the First Four.

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Odds for North Carolina vs. San Diego State

Per the latest odds at FanDuel, North Carolina is a 4.5-point favorite over San Diego State at plus money at (+100). That has the Aztecs at (+146) on the moneyline.

The over-under for the game is then at a total 142.5 points. Which side to play there likely comes down to which end of the court has more of an advantage between the Tar Heels’ offense or the Aztecs’ defense.

Final score predictions for North Carolina vs. San Diego State

BPI Predicted Winner: North Carolina
BPI Predicted Point Differential: 4.4
BPI Win Probability (for UNC): 67.1%
BPI Matchup Quality: 80.1

ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI) is similarly in favor of North Carolina tomorrow in the First Four. It’s projecting a slight, four-point win for the Tar Heels with a probability of 67.1%.

North Carolina vs. San Diego State is the highest-rated game on the first night of the postseason schedule for the BPI between the two for the NCAA Tournament and seven more in the NIT. The matchup quality is +21.2 in the metric compared to the next closest game on the schedule.

KenPom Predicted Final Score: North Carolina 73, San Diego State 71
KenPom Win Probability (for UNC): 58%

KenPom is then just a little less confident in North Carolina. Their projection has just a two-point win for UNC over SDSU with a lower win probability of 58%.

How to watch North Carolina vs. San Diego State

Time: 9:10 p.m. EST on Tuesday (March 18th)
Channel: truTV
Location: UD Arena (Dayton, Ohio)

North Carolina and San Diego State, specifically the Tar Heels, have a lot to prove in this one-game scenario to extend their season into the NCAA Tournament. One of them will then get the chance to pull an upset against No. 6 Ole Miss in the South Region of the bracket.

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