UNC vs. Ole Miss odds: Current line, win probability, final score prediction, how to watch NCAA Tournament

North Carolina and Ole Miss are set to meet in opening-round action of the NCAA Tournament. This comes just a few days after the Tar Heels advanced by winning a play-in game as the No. 11 seed.

Ole Miss put together a sneaky good record at 22-11 and 10-8 in SEC play. The Rebels have proven they’re a threat to do some damage in March, but they may not have quite the same level of motivation as the Tar Heels.

Picked as one of the last teams in the field, North Carolina seems out to prove it belongs. Can it defy the odds and continue its run through the NCAA Tournament?

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Odds for North Carolina vs. Ole Miss

Coming into the game, North Carolina is a 1.5-point favorite over Ole Miss, per FanDuel. The Tar Heels are also currently listed at -120 for the moneyline right now, while the Rebels are sitting at +100.

The point total for the game is currently set at 155.5 points. The two teams have previously met twice, but not in the NCAA Tournament. Both meetings came in the Southern Conference Tournament, first in 1923, then in 1926. The teams split those games.

Final score predictions for North Carolina vs. Ole Miss

BPI Predicted winner: North Carolina
BPI Predicted point differential: 1.6
BPI Win probability (for North Carolina): 56.3%
BPI Matchup Quality: 87.0

ESPN’s BPI is a model designed to provide a statistical comparison between two teams and predict future success. It agrees with Vegas about what to expect from this game. Leading into the game, BPI is projecting a point differential of 1.6 points in North Carolina’s favor. It also gives the Tar Heels a 56.3% chance to win the NCAA Tournament game over the Rebels.

BPI also gives this game a matchup quality score of 87.0. That is the highest quality score of the day.

KenPom Predicted final score: Ole Miss 78, North Carolina 77
KenPom Win probability (for Ole Miss): 54%

KenPom is another predictive system for college basketball. It’s designed to show how strong a team is at a given time, without taking factors like injuries into account. For this NCAA Tournament game between North Carolina and Ole Miss, KenPom disagrees with BPI and Vegas, projecting the Rebels to win by one.

How to watch North Carolina vs. Ole Miss

Time: 4:05 p.m. ET, March 21
Channel: TNT
Location: Milwaukee (Wisc.)

North Carolina and Ole Miss are set to tip off at 4:05 p.m. ET on March 21. It will also be played at the Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, rather than an on-campus venue, as part of the 2025 NCAA Tournament.

For fans outside of Milwaukee, the game can be watched on TNT. Coverage of the NCAA Tournament will air live throughout the day on TNT, TruTV, CBS and TBS.

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