Notre Dame vs. North Carolina odds: Win probability, final score prediction for Irish, UNC

The regular season its nearing the finish line, making Tuesday night’s matchup between North Carolina and Notre Dame a crucial one as the Tar Heels look to remain as the outright top seed in the ACC standings.

The Tar Heels will look to secure their fifth straight win ahead of their pivotal regular season finale versus Duke this Saturday. Meanwhile, Notre Dame will look to continue their impressive turnaround after spending a majority of the season at the bottom on the conference standings. Winning an impressive five of their last six games.

The stage is set for two of the biggest brands in basketball to square off for the first time this season. Here’s everything you need to know ahead of the matchup.

Odds for Notre Dame vs. North Carolina

The Tar Heels are heavy 15.5-point home favorites against Notre Dame on Tuesday according to FanDuel Sportsbook. With North Carolina also sitting at -2000 odds on the moneyline with the Fighting Irish at +980, representing a sizable payout if Notre Dame is able to take win the game outright versus the conference’s top seed.

The point total for the game also sits at an over-under of 137.5, with Vegas expecting a low-scoring matchup as North Carolina boasts the ACC’s highest scoring offense and Norte Dame the second lowest. But the Fighting Irish do have the league’s second best scoring defense holding opponents to just 65.4 points per game.

Final score predictions for Notre Dame vs. North Carolina

BPI Predicted winner: North Carolina
BPI Predicted point differential: 20.9
BPI Win probability (for North Carolina): 96.3 percent
BPI Matchup Quality: 66.0

ESPN’s BPI (Basketball Power Index) is even more confident in North Carolina compared to FanDuel’s prediction for Tuesday night’s game. Forecasting a steep 20.9-point differential in favor of the Tar Heels while also giving them a 96.3% chance of protecting their home floor in the Smith Center.

The BPI is a model designed to provide a statistical comparison between two teams and predict future success, also giving the ACC showdown a matchup quality score of 66.0. Making Tuesday’s game between Notre Dame and North Carolina the 14th best matchup across college basketball’s slate of games.

KenPom Predicted final score: North Carolina 75, Notre Dame 59
KenPom Win probability (for North Carolina): 93 percent

KenPom is another predictive system for college basketball, designed to show how strong a team is at a given time, without taking factors like injuries into account.

Just like ESPN’s BPI and FanDuel, KenPom also forecasts a big win for the Tar Heels on Tuesday. Predicting that North Carolina will defeat Notre Dame by 16 points to secure their fifth straight win ahead of their regular season finale versus Duke, giving the Fighting Irish just a 7% chance of winning the matchup.

How to watch Notre Dame vs. North Carolina

Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
Channel: ACC Network, FuboTV (streaming)
Location: Chapel Hill (NC)

North Carolina has been dominant in recent history against the Fighting Irish as the two teams will face off for the first time since February of 2022. With the Tar Heels winning eight of their last 10 matchups against Notre Dame.

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Tar Heels’ guard Cormac Ryan will also be seeing some familiar faces on Tuesday, spending the last three seasons at Notre Dame before transferring to North Carolina this offseason. Ryan was the Fighting Irish’s second-leading scorer last season averaging 12.3 points per game, but now averages 10.7 points in his role with the No. 9 ranked Tar Heels.