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Oklahoma vs. Texas odds: Win probability, final score prediction for Sooners, Longhorns

Matt Connollyby:Matt Connolly03/09/24

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Texas
(Steve Sisney for The Oklahoman / USA TODAY NETWORK)

Oklahoma and Texas will conclude the regular season on Saturday with a rivalry matchup in Austin. The Big 12 showdown is important for both teams as they look to improve their NCAA Tournament and Big 12 Tournament seeding.

The Longhorns are currently projected to be a No. 8 seed in the NCAA Tournament by ESPN, while Oklahoma is projected as a No. 9 seed.

Both teams also enter the matchup with an 8-9 record in the Big 12 and with a chance to improve their seeding. Here’s what you need to know for the game:

Odds for Texas vs. Oklahoma

Vegas is expecting a fairly close game between the Longhorns and Sooners. The Longhorns are favored by 5.5 points at home, according to FanDuel. The over-under has been set at 143.5.

Texas is also a -220 favorite on the money line. The Oklahoma money line plays out at +180.

Final score predictions for Texas vs. Oklahoma

BPI Predicted winner: Texas
BPI Predicted point differential: 7.3
BPI Win probability (for Texas): 78.3 percent
BPI Matchup Quality: 82.0

ESPN’s BPI is a model designed to provide a statistical comparison between two teams and predict future success. It agrees with Vegas about Texas winning, but it expects the Longhorns to do so slightly more comfortably. Leading into the game, BPI is projecting the Longhorns to win by about 7 points. It also gives the Longhorns a 78.3 percent chance of earning a victory against Oklahoma.

BPI gives this game a matchup quality score of 82.0. That is not one of the higher numbers on Saturday’s basketball slate.

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KenPom Predicted final score: Texas 74, Oklahoma 70
KenPom Win probability (for Texas): 65 percent

KenPom is another predictive system for college basketball. It’s designed to show how strong a team is at a given time, without taking factors like injuries into account.

For this game between the Longhorns and Sooners, KenPom agrees with BPI and Vegas, projecting Texas to win. However, it does expect a closer game than what BPI is predicting.

How to watch Texas vs. Oklahoma

Time: 2 p.m. ET
Channel: ESPN, FuboTV (streaming)
Location: Austin (Texas)

Texas and Oklahoma are set to face off at 2 p.m. on Saturday. The game will be televised by ESPN. This should be a fun rivalry matchup with a lot on the line.

Fubo’s spring offer just kicked off – For a limited time, new subscribers can save $20 on their first month of Fubo’s Pro, Elite, and Premier plans.

The game will take place at the Moody Center in Austin. The Longhorns earned a 75-60 win when the two teams played earlier this season in Norman.