Ole Miss vs. Kentucky odds: Win probability, final score prediction for Rebels, Wildcats

Both Ole Miss as well as No. 22 Kentucky are trending in the wrong direction as we reach mid-February. The Rebels have lost two straight and gone .500 in 10 conference games while the Wildcats have dropped three of four, all of which have come at home, and gone 4-5 over the past nine total.

Those respective skids will make their matchup inside Rupp Arena all the more important tonight. It will provide some positivity for the winner while the loser’s conference record and postseason resumé will take another hit.

Here’s the full breakdown for how Ole Miss vs. Kentucky is being viewed ahead of tipoff from the bluegrass:

Odds for Ole Miss vs. Kentucky

Kentucky is an 8.5-point favorite on Tuesday at home over the Rebels per FanDuel. That has the Wildcats as a -365 favorite on the moneyline compared to Ole Miss at +285. The over/under is currently at 163.5 points

The total suggests that we could again see some offensive fireworks between these two teams. Both squads can score the ball well while both, specifically UK as of late, have their defensive deficiencies. Depending on how you view the shootout would then determine the feel on the line of near double digits in favor of the Wildcats.

Final score prediction for Ole Miss vs. Kentucky

BPI Predicted winner: Kentucky
BPI Predicted point differential: 11.3
BPI Win probability (for Kentucky): 83.2%
BPI Matchup Quality: 74.5

ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI) is leaning the way of Kentucky for tonight’s game. It’s prediction has UK taking it by double digits over Ole Miss, which would mean a cover of the spread from Vegas.

As for quality of the matchup, this contest is No. 12 on the index for the slate this evening.

KenPom Predicted final score: Kentucky 86, Ole Miss 79
KenPom Win probability (for Kentucky): 74%

While KenPom also agrees with the eventual winner, it has the Rebels keeping things closer. Their ratings have Ole Miss losing by only seven, which suggests a play on taking the points on the underdogs.

KenPom’s win probability also isn’t as high on Kentucky with their percentage down almost a full 10% from the number by BPI.

How to watch Ole Miss vs. Kentucky

Time: 9 p.m. EST
Channel: ESPN, ESPN+ or FuboTV (streaming)
Location: Rupp Arena (Lexington, Kentucky)

It’s safe to say that there’s a lack of positivity in regards to Kentucky at the moment. After a 12-2 start, the Wildcats have nearly pushed themselves right out of the Top-25 with them having dropped five of nine and three of the last four.

Essentially all of those struggles fall on what they’re not doing defensively. They’ve given up 85.4 points per game over the last nine and 92.2 per loss over their five defeats in that stretch. Those issues are taking away the chances of a team that’s averaging nearly 90 points per game themselves to win and, as such, it’s on John Calipari to find some way for his team to get stops on a more consistent basis.

As for Ole Miss, they’ve also struggled amidst conference play. Since starting 13-0, the Rebels are just 5-5 in the SEC. That record has put them in fifth place and in eighth overall in the standings.

To be fair, the four of the five losses have come against stout competition in ranked editions of Tennessee, Auburn twice, and South Carolina. That includes both of their recent two-game slide after blowing a 13-point lead at home to the Tigers and then being down from start to finish and as much as 17 to the Gamecocks. Now, tonight, Kentucky will be their third straight game versus a Top-25 team.

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Kentucky and Ole Miss each need this win tonight both for actual resumé and, in some ways, morale. All that’s left to do now is throw the ball at tipoff and see who capitalizes on the opportunity to end their respective dropoffs.