Oregon vs. South Carolina odds: Win probability, final score prediction in NCAA Tournament

March Madness is officially here with first round action of the 2024 NCAA Tournament set to tip off Thursday. There’s several exciting games set to take place on the opening day, including a matchup between No. 6 South Carolina and No. 11 Oregon.

The Ducks are getting some buzz as a team that could potentially make some noise in the tournament as a lower seed. Dana Altman has gotten them to at least the Sweet Sixteen in each of their past four NCAA Tournament appearances. They are led by the veteran duo of guard Jermaine Couisnard and center N’Faly Dante.

South Carolina, however, won’t go down easily as it is set to make its first tournament appearance since 2017. You can view the odds and predictions for the matchup between the Gamecocks and Ducks below.

Odds for Oregon vs. South Carolina

Vegas expects this to be a tightly contested matchup as South Carolina is favored by only 1.5 points according to FanDuel. The moneyline is +100 to bet on Oregon and -120 for the Gamecocks.

The over/under for the game is set at 133.5. Both schools rank outside of the top 100 in points scored per game, while South Carolina is 47th in points allowed per game. However, their combined averages equal 147.3 points, so this may still be a good spot to take the over.

Fina score predictions for Oregon vs. South Carolina

BPI predicted winner: South Carolina
BPI predicted point differential: 1.0
BPI win probability (for South Carolina): 54.3%
BPI matchup quality: 88.4

ESPN’s BPI model compares team statistics to predict the outcomes of games. It seems in line with Vegas in that it projects the game to be decided by one point with a slight edge to South Carolina. This game also has potential to be one of the most entertaining of Thursday, with a matchup quality of 88.4 that ranks it fourth among the 16 games scheduled.

KenPom predicted final score: South Carolina 69, Oregon 68
KenPom win probability (for South Carolina): 53%

Like the BPI, KenPom uses advanced stats to predict the outcome of games. It also expects the matchup between Oregon and South Carolina to be tightly contested down to the finish with the Gamecocks have just a tad more of a chance to win as they are the higher seed. We could very well be in for a buzzer beater here with the Ducks predicted to lose by only one point.

How to watch Oregon vs. South Carolina

Time: 4 p.m. ET
Channel: TNT, Prime Video (streaming)
Location: PPG Paints Arena in Pittsburgh, PA

South Carolina and Oregon will be the second game of the day at PPG Paints Arena in Pittsburgh with a tip time of 4 p.m. ET. They will face the winner between No. 3 Creighton and No. 14 Akron, which are set to play in the game before.

You can watch the tournament live on Prime Video, add on your favorite channels and watch at home or on your phone and laptop at work!

Fans looking to watch the game on television will find it on TNT or can also stream any tournament game they want via Prime Video.