Pick-Six: Best bets for Florida-Texas, Georgia-Ole Miss, Alabama-LSU, Upset Du Jour

The slow climb back to .500 marches on. Maybe by Thanksgiving the Pick-Six column will finally get there? 

I followed up a 4-1 showing with another winning week, going 3-2 yet whiffing on another Upset Du Jour (come on, Illini! Losing at home to Minnesota when winning almost all the advanced stats?!?!?!)

Ole Miss and South Carolina single-handedly covered the totals by themselves in two games I was on the under (not great!), but otherwise, it was a solid week of picks with the under in Ohio State-Penn State, Vandy covering at Auburn (no sweat) and SMU blasting Pitt (same). 

I’m now 23-26-1, and 6-4 in my Upset Special Du Jour picks. 

So let’s have another winning week. This weekend’s slate includes a bunch of games with heavy College Football Playoff stakes, as well as some sneaky conference matchups, so let’s dive into the Week 11 best bets.

(All point spreads courtesy of FanDuel).

Florida at No. 5 Texas (-21.5, O/U 47.5)

The Gators made major news Thursday announcing that embattled head coach Billy Napier would “continue as head coach.” Does that mean for just the reason of the season? Or 2025? Likely the latter, but the vagueness was at least notable.

Still, Napier likely has some grace, which means Florida probably won’t put injured quarterback DJ Lagway in harms way this weekend. The Gators are also super shorthanded in the secondary, which could prove problematic. Texas is coming off a bye and quarterback Quinn Ewers’ oblique injury should be much-improved. The Longhorns are also getting top wideout Isaiah Bond back. 

Considering the emotional rollercoaster that Florida has been on the last few weeks, coupled with Texas gearing up for a stretch-run to the postseason, I’m expecting a buttoned-up effort from the Longhorns where they start to finally hit the throttle. 

THE PICK: Texas -21

No. 3 Georgia at No. 16 Ole Miss (+2.5, O/U 55)

I was burned by an Ole Miss under last weekend when the Rebels’ offense went nuclear against Arkansas, but Georgia’s defense presents a much stiffer challenge. 

Ole Miss still can’t run the ball, and Jaxon Dart is going to have to create plays with his legs to extend drives. The Rebels are also beat up at receiver, with star wideout Tre Harris listed as doubtful (though most expect him to play) and likely limited on Saturday. Georgia has scored over 30 points in five straight games, but Carson Beck has also thrown 11 interceptions across that stretch. When you add all that up + a weather forecast predicting heavy rains, I don’t foresee a ton of touchdowns.

THE PICK: Under 55

South Carolina at Vanderbilt (+4.5, O/U 45.5)

This one is fairly straightforward: In Diego Pavia We Trust. 

While the Commodores’ quarterback is a bit beat up, Pavia is going to keep swinging until he’s forcibly removed from the game. I’m definitely concerned about Vandy’s ability to block Pavia (123rd in pressure rate despite just 11 sacks allowed) against South Carolina’s terrific front, but I’m not looking for an outright upset here — just a trip to cover town. 

The Gamecocks destroyed Texas A&M in the second half last weekend, and they’ve won 15-straight games against the ‘Dores, but quarterback LaNorris Sellers has yet to prove he can play with any sort of consistency and the ‘Cocks seem ripe for an emotional letdown.

THE PICK: Vandy +4.5

No. 11 Alabama at No. 15 LSU (+2.5, O/U 57.5)

The sun will set over Tiger Stadium on Saturday night, but it’s anyone’s guess who will win a College Football Playoff elimination game between the two former SEC West rivals. 

Both teams are coming off bye weeks. Both teams should throw their best punch. But what exactly does that mean for the matchup?

LSU struggled to defend the QB-run game against South Carolina and Texas A&M, so I expected a rested Jalen Milroe to carry the rock A LOT on Saturday night. Alabama’s secondary looked great against Missouri and has excellent overlying metrics (No. 1 in passing success rate), but this is a unit that’s turned receivers loose all year and just hasn’t been burned. Will that good fortune continue against Garrett Nussmeier and the best group of wideouts it’s seen all season? In SEC play, both these offenses rank in the Top 5 in scoring, so I’m expecting fireworks in Death Valley where neither team can afford to leave any bullets in the chamber.

THE PICK: Over 57.5

No. 9 BYU at Utah (+2.5, O/U 40.5)

The Cougs were under-ranked by the playoff committee this week, suggesting they need to keep winning to ensure they have a spot in the field come the first weekend in December. Can they handle business in Salt Lake City, where they haven’t won in Rice-Eccles Stadium since 2006?

Utah is coming off a bye week, but I don’t know how much offensive ammunition the Utes have for the Holy War. Kyle Whittingham is back to his QB shenanigans again — and that’s not a good sign historically! I’m not going to overthink this one and simply take the better team — even if it’s on the road.

THE PICK: BYU -2.5

Upset Du Jour

No. 17 Iowa State at Kansas (+3, O/U 50.5)

Is this the week that Iowa State’s Big 12 title hopes and CFP aspirations get torpedoed? I think so! 

The Jayhawks are 2-6, but that record includes FIVE losses by less than four points each. They should’ve been in-state rival Kansas State, and they’ve had two weeks to stew over that result. 

Iowa State was fortunate to beat UCF and then it got-got against Texas Tech in a monsoon last Saturday. This game will feel like a neutral-site game since it’s being played in Arrowhead Stadium where lots of Cyclones fans will be in attendance, but I think Lance Leipold and the Jayhawks engineer the upset and spoil Iowa State’s early storybook season.

THE PICK: Kansas