Pick-Six: Best bets for Missouri-Texas A&M, Iowa-Ohio State, Tennessee-Arkansas, Upset Du Jour

Well, like a team with lofty preseason expectations who bombs twice in the first month (cough, cough, Va. Tech), September certainly could’ve gone better for the Pick-Six column. 

Week 5 wasn’t a total disaster at least, going 2-2-1 and I did nail my fourth-straight Upset Du Jour (again, why was Baylor favored over BYU?). 

The Gambling Gods still insist on making me endure at least one bad beat each week, though. 

I had the under 57.5 in Oklahoma State-Kansas State, and the Pokes could hardly muster anything offensively for three quarters and the score sat at 42-13 (UNDER!) with about four minutes remaining in the fourth quarter. 

Not only did Oklahoma State start moving the ball, but it hit multiple explosive passes and then with about 1:50 remaining, a third-string tailback ripped off a 14-yard touchdown run. Kansas State 42. Ok State 20. Pain. 

But it’s a new month!

Let’s R’October.

I’m now 9-15-1, and 4-1 in my Upset Special Du Jour. 

Let’s dive into the Week 6 best bets.

(All point spreads courtesy of FanDuel).

No. 9 Missouri at No. 25 Texas A&M (-2.5, O/U 48.5)

I’ve questioned if this Mizzou team is a Paper Tiger, and this is Eli Drinkwitz’s team’s first chance to truly prove whether it’s a contender or pretender. The Aggies are capable of playing tough defense and luring the Tigers into the mud, so can Brady Cook, Luther Burden and the rest of Mizzou’s offense convert in the red zone? Missouri looked terrible against Vandy, but it wasn’t like A&M bathed itself in glory in an ugly win over Arkansas. Coming off the bye week, give me the Tigers to at least stay within the number. 

THE PICK: Mizzou +2.5

Iowa at No. 3 Ohio State (-19.5, O/U 45.5)

Did you know that Iowa over’s are 4-0 this season? While the Hawkeyes’ offense is improved (the nation needs to know about Kaleb Johnson), they’re still a totally one-dimensional attack with a defense that’s not quite as buttoned up as seasons past. Meanwhile, Ohio State is a wagon — Top 5 in scoring offense and scoring defense — that’s barely moved past the first sheet in the playbook. I was tempted by the over here, but will ride with history (Iowa getting blown out by the best of the Big Ten) and just roll with OSU.

THE PICK: Ohio State -19.5

No. 4 Tennessee at Arkansas (-13.5, O/U 58.5)

Tennessee is coming off a bye week where it got healthier, while the Hogs are licking their wounds after another gutting one-score loss. Sam Pittman’s back is totally up against the wall (especially with an idle date on deck), but is Arkansas capable of scoring more than two touchdowns against this Tennessee front seven? They couldn’t block Texas A&M, so what evidence is there to believe they can handle James Pearce, Omari Thomas & Co.? Taylen Green and the Razorbacks’ offense has also been a turnover sieve. When you add in the fact that Josh Heupel purposely went conservative in the second half against Oklahoma (something he typically never does), this has all the makings of a Nico Iamaleava breakout night.

THE PICK: Tennessee -13.5

SMU at No. 22 Louisville (-6.5, O/U 56.5)

I’m circling back to the Cardinals this week in what I think is a get-right opportunity for Jeff Brohm’s team. They stepped on the rake one too many times at Notre Dame last weekend, but they out-paced the Irish on a down-to-down basis. Tyler Shough looks like the second-best quarterback in the ACC, and another week with Caulin Lacy should help Louisville’s offense. SMU is riding high after blasting TCU for the Iron Skillet and then smashing FSU at home. But this is easily the most complete team (and best offense) they’ve faced all season. Cards handle their business at home. 

THE PICK: Louisville -6.5

Texas Tech at Arizona (-6.5, O/U 64)

This is a bit of a hold-your-nose special as I don’t believe Texas Tech is some great team, but the Red Raiders have won three-straight games with frisky offense while the Wildcats are riding high after upsetting a Cam Rising-less Utah last weekend. Arizona badly needs this game to stay in the hunt for a Big 12 title, but Texas Tech has the much more efficient offense and both defenses stink. Noah Fifita may find a way to lead his team to victory, but Behren Morton (14 touchdowns to just two picks) is capable of keeping the Red Raiders within the number. 

THE PICK: Texas Tech +6.5

Upset Du Jour

UCF at Florida (+2.5, O/U 62.5)

In the words of Austin Powers, “Danger’s my middle name.”

Am I really going back to the well with Billy Napier and these hapless Florida Gators? Why? Well, these are two very similar teams (good offenses, so-so-to-bad defenses, but Florida is coming off an idle date with two weeks to prepare while the Knights just got decapitated by Colorado in the Bounce House last week. The Gators can’t stop the run, while UCF has a terrible secondary. Napier has already lost more games in the Swamp than Steve Spurrier did in a dozen seasons as UF’s head coach, but is he really going to lose to UCF at home, too?

THE PICK: Florida