Pick-Six: Best bets for NC State-Clemson, UCLA-LSU, Tennessee-Oklahoma, Upset Du Jour
The Gambling Football Gods are no fans of the Friday Pick-Six.
At least that’s what I’m telling myself right now.
Week 3 delivered another set of frustrating results: A 2-3 week (I did hit a second-straight Upset Du Jour, thank you Wazzu).
Flashback: Notre Dame couldn’t block Northern Illinois. The Irish struggled to get first downs.
So naturally, a week later (Clemson 2.0 nightmares here) the Irish are so unstoppable at Purdue that even when they were trying to run out the clock at the end of the first half, a simple dive play went for a 70-yard touchdown.
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They nearly hit the over by halftime.
The Arizona-Kansas State over never had a chance, as something is rotten with the Arizona offense right now. The most backbreaking ‘L’ from Week 3 was the over in the UTSA-Texas game.
I had the exact right handicap — down to the fact that Arch Manning would “play the entire second half and throw several touchdowns.”
What I didn’t foresee was a pick-six inside the final 90 seconds to take the game over.
Brutal.
But I have no choice but to march on. On the year, I’m now 6-9, and 2-1 in my Upset Special Du Jour.
Let’s dive into the Week 4 best bets.
(All point spreads courtesy of FanDuel).
NC State at No. 21 Clemson (-18.5, O/U 45)
Like Dorothy, I’m going to click my heels three times and repeat: I do not believe in Clemson’s offensive renaissance. I do not believe in Clemson’s offensive renaissance. I do not believe in Clemson’s offensive renaissance.
Sure, the Tigers made me look bad two weeks ago when I picked the under in the App. State game, only for them to hit the over before halftime and hang 66 on the Mountaineers. Perhaps we see a repeat performance, but a nooner at Clemson, with NC State starting a true freshman quarterback, screams sleepy under for two squads who have shown real offensive warts against defenses with a pulse.
THE PICK: Under 44.5
Kansas at West Virginia (-2.5, O/U 57.5)
Jalon Daniels has been objectively awful this season, throwing six interceptions in his first three games — including two horrible turnovers in the loss to UNLV last Friday. His three turnovers in the one-score loss to Illinois was the difference in the game, too.
But is he really going to have three atrocious games in a row? Kansas had poor fumble luck against UNLV and it easily could’ve escaped Champagne with a win, too. This is a bet on Lance Leipold sorting some issues out against a West Virginia defense that ranks near the bottom the Big 12 in yards per play allowed, scoring and explosive plays allowed.
THE PICK: Kansas +2.5
UCLA at No. 16 LSU (-24, O/U 56.5)
On the heels of last week’s dramatic comeback win at South Carolina, this is totally a potential letdown spot for LSU. But I’m fading UCLA until the Bruins show a pulse defensively.
I picked Indiana to go into the Rose Bowl and win in Week 2, and the Hoosiers housed the Bruins 42-13. Now DeShaun Foster must get his team to travel across the country, and play a 3:30 p.m. game in muggy Baton Rouge against Garrett Nussmeier, Kyren Lacy and an LSU offense that might’ve found a new dude at tailback (hello, freshman Caden Durham).
UCLA ranks 125th nationally in third-down defense and 121st in the country in success rate. Even if LSU gets off to a slow start, I expect the Tigers to score … and score a lot to cover the big number.
THE PICK: LSU -24
No. 6 Tennessee at No. 15 Oklahoma (+7.5, O/U 57)
Tennessee has been a wagon, while Oklahoma has been a schooner with three wheels. Maybe the Sooners will be better this weekend with a healthier offensive line? But I’m not counting on it.
At the same time, while I really like the Vols this season, laying more than a touchdown on the road at night in Norman seems like a dangerous deal for a redshirt freshman quarterback making his first career start.
Both offenses want to play with tempo, but there could be a lot of punts early on in this game.
THE PICK: Under 57
No. 13 Kansas State at BYU (+6.5, O/U 47.5)
The Wildcats are coming off a statement win over No. 20 Arizona, bottling up Noah Fifita and the Wildcats’ offense while Avery Johnson, DJ Giddens and the running game got going.
This is obviously a tricky spot — a night game in Provo where the Cougs are hosting a White Out — but by nearly every analytical metric, K-State is the better team.
BYU is 3-0, but Kalani Sitake’s team hasn’t exactly looked like roaring lions beating a so-so SMU team (18-15) and a bad Wyoming squad. I think the Wildcats handle their business and move to 1-0 in Big 12 play with another double-digit win.
THE PICK: Kansas State -6.5
Upset Du Jour
TCU at SMU (+2.5, O/U 58.5)
The Battle for the Iron Skillet isn’t quite as hot this season with both the Horned Frogs and Mustangs struggling out of the gate in 2024. TCU saw a multi-touchdown lead over UCF disappear last weekend, while SMU has been juggling quarterbacks for the first three weeks of the season.
Rhett Lashlee finally put an end to the see-sawing series between Preston Stone and Kevin Jennings, tabbing the latter the team’s full-time starter moving forward. Considering Jennings offers a dual-threat ability against TCU’s spotty run defense, the Mustangs have real upset potential Saturday night.
THE PICK: SMU