Pick-Six: Best bets for Oklahoma State-Kansas State, Louisville-Notre Dame, Illinois-Penn State, Upset Du Jour
At his final press conference as the head coach of the Washington Commanders, Steve Spurrier went full Head Ball Coach after the team’s 5-11 season.
“Welp. Not very good! But there was some worse ‘un us. I guess that’s one positive way to look at it We weren’t the worst team in the league. But it wasn’t very good. And we’re disappointed. And offseason’s here, so we’ll try to regroup. And try to make this team, this franchise better.”
That’s me with the Pick-Six column right now.
How much more pain will the Gambling Gods make me endure?
Week 4 was a doozy of dreadful picks and bad beats — Kansas blowing an 11-point lead in the fourth quarter as a 2.5-point underdog. Clemson hitting the over before halftime again. Kansas State holding a lead late in the second quarter only to get clobbered at BYU.
I did correctly nail the under in Tennessee/Oklahoma, and hit my third-straight Upset Du Jour (SMU over TCU) — maybe some pickers are “Worse ‘un us. I guess that’s one positive way to look at it.”
Is a bounce-back week in store?
On the season, I’m now 7-13, and 3-1 in my Upset Special Du Jour.
Let’s dive into the Week 5 best bets.
(All point spreads courtesy of FanDuel).
No. 22 Oklahoma State at No. 23 Kansas State (-4.5, O/U 57.5)
This total opened at 52.5 and has been spiked up to nearly 58. Why? What am I missing here?
Oklahoma State benched veteran quarterback Alan Bowman last weekend against Utah, and Ollie Gordon is still M.I.A. (11 carries for 42 yards). The Pokes’ ground game (which was awesome last season) is now a wagon without wheels, ranking 115th nationally. Meanwhile, Kansas State quarterback Avery Johnson hasn’t thrown for more than 180 yards all season, and had two horrible picks in the loss to BYU last Saturday. These two teams had better offenses in 2023, and that game ended 29-21 OK State.
THE PICK: Under 57.5
No. 3 Ohio State at Michigan State (+23.5, O/U 48.5)
As I noted in this week’s College Football Playoff predictions piece, the Buckeyes are blur offensively in 2024. They’re running a totally vanilla scheme right now, so oftentimes when you’re watching they just gain three or four yards. And then in flash when you’ve changed the channel, they’ve scored a 60-yard touchdown on a three-yard slant. They basically had four of those plays against Marshall and they weren’t really trying. With Big Ten play starting this week, I could see Chip Kelly opening up the offensive playbook just a bit more (maybe some Will Howard-designed runs to put on tape?).
Michigan State’s defense has been just ok against some subpar offenses, and Jonathan Smith is one of the best head coaches in college football as an underdog against the spread (24-15 all-time). But Spartans quarterback Aiden Chiles is a turnover machine (seven INTs already this season), so when you factor in that (especially against this Ohio State defense) with OSU’s buzzsaw offense has me thinking the Buckeyes can name their number in this one.
THE PICK: Ohio State -23.5
Georgia Southern at Georgia State (-3.5, O/U 58.5)
What is this random Sun Belt game doing on the slate this week? Well the line on this game has swung 6.5 points, with GSU (which has already played Boise State and Ole Miss this season) going from a field goal favorite to an underdog against Dell McGee’s Panthers.
Georgia State (2-1) has exceeded expectations early this season with its upset over Vanderbilt, but it’s had two weeks to pat itself on the back coming off an idle date. Can the Panthers sustain such success? Perhaps the market knows about a hidden injury that isn’t public, but as far as I can tell, GSU quarterback JC French is still slated to start so no other player would impact the line movement that much. I’m going to lean on the various analytical models on this one, which all say there’s value in Georgia Southern at this number now.
THE PICK: Georgia Southern +3.5
No. 15 Louisville at No. 16 Notre Dame (-6.5, O/U 45.5)
The handicap on this primetime matchup is rather simple: While we don’t know a whole lot about 2024 Louisville, we know plenty about 2024 Notre Dame. As if in an ode to Knute Rockne, the Irish have been allergic to the forward pass. Is this the game Riley Leonard suddenly has a breakout performance, though?
Maybe. But I’m not banking on it. The Irish have their backs against the wall here after losing to Northern Illinois three weeks ago, and they’re looking to exact some revenge on a Louisville squad that repeatedly punched them in the face last season. Still, a better quarterback (Tyler Shough) + better coach (Jeff Brohm) = give me the points.
THE PICK: Louisville +6.5
No. 19 Illinois at No. 9 Penn State (-17.5, O/U 47.5)
Penn State had 19 plays over 30 yards in 13 games in 2023. With Andy Koltnicki now calling the shots, the Nittany Lions have 10 such explosives in just three games this fall. I’d say that move it working out quite nicely. Drew Allar is averaging 12.6 yards per attempt — No. 2 nationally. Nick Singleton looks like the 2022 version of Nick Singleton, ripping off multiple long runs (averaging 8.5 yards per carry, No. 3 in the Big Ten) each game, while Tyler Warren is the best tight end in the nation not named Colston Loveland.
So while Illinois defense came up with timely takeaways against Kansas and Nebraska, I expect PSU to be able to score some touchdowns against the Fighting Illini. I also have faith that Luke Altmyer (Big Ten-best 10 touchdowns, zero picks), Pat Bryant (six touchdowns), Zakhari Franklin (team-high 21 catches) and tailback Kaden Feagin will find some success against a Nittany Lions’ defense that’s trying to figure itself out without star safety K.J. Winston Jr.
THE PICK: Over 47.5
Upset Du Jour
No. 22 BYU at Baylor (-3.5, O/U 45.5)
Vegas must know something, right? That’s what the saying is anyways. This smelly line reeks after Baylor coughed up a win at Colorado last weekend and BYU bloodied Kansas State. And yet, Mr. Hot Seat King (Dave Aranda) is actually more than a field goal favorite at home against Kalani Sitake’s Cougs.
I’m not going to bet on the come, though. BYU’s offense isn’t anything to write home about, but the Cougars are truly ferocious on defense and should have plenty of answers for a Bears offense that’s 15th in yards per play. Jay Hill’s unit leads the Big 12 in takeaways (eight) and ranks No. 2 in both yards per play allowed (4.2) and scoring (12.8). Give me BYU in an “upset.”
THE PICK: BYU