Pick-Six: Week 10 best bets Ohio State-Penn State, Ole Miss-Arkansas, Pitt-SMU, Upset Du Jour

That’s how you end October with a bang! The Pick-Six column has had some up-and-down weeks, but I must’ve been Superman for Halloween with the X-ray vision I saw the board in Week 9. 

I was 4-1 against the spread, with a sad-trombone Upset Du Jour that looked great for a half only to see LSU totally implode against Texas A&M. 

Or maybe I was just lucky last week. You can decide. 

I missed the over in the Boise State–UNLV game, but I nailed Notre Dame, Miami and Penn State easily covering the number and had the under in Illinois–Oregon. 

I’m now inching toward .500 for the season, going 20-24-1, and 6-3 in my Upset Special Du Jour picks. 

Can another winning week get me oh-so-closer to the black?

We hope so!

It’s not the most amazing slate this weekend, but Ohio State–Penn State should be awesome and there are plenty of other quality games so let’s dive into the Week 10 best bets.

(All point spreads courtesy of FanDuel).

No. 4 Ohio State at No. 3 Penn State (+3.5, O/U 46.5)

I want no part in picking a side in Game of the Week. I lean Ohio State, but Ryan Day’s teams have a history of turtling in marquee spots. Of course, James Franklin is 1-9 against the Buckeyes and has a terrible record (1-12) in Top 5 matchups. 

So in a pressure-on-pressure showdown, something’s got to give.

In the actual on-field analysis, both teams have major question marks: Ohio State is down to its third-string LT, so can the Buckeyes’ offensive line hold up against Abdul Carter and a PSU defense that ranks just outside the Top 10 nationally in pressure rate? Can Will Howard start to produce more explosive plays? How healthy is Nittany Lions’ quarterback Drew Allar? Do they have the receivers to challenge an OSU secondary that looked very leaky against Oregon?

With so many uncertainties for both offenses, I expect both units to be conservative early — looking to avoid a crippling turnover that nets the other a gift scoring opportunity. 

THE PICK: Under 46.5

No. 19 Ole Miss at Arkansas (+7, O/U 53.5)

With Lane Kiffin throwing up his arms for touchdowns, most think of Ole Miss having this high-octane, high-scoring offense, but that has not been the case in 2024 — especially in SEC play. The Rebels have gone under the number in six straight games, as an inability to protect Jaxson Dart or run the football with any efficiency has severely limited their attack. Coming into Saturday, they could be without star wideout Tre Harris (who if he does play will be limited at best) and multiple offensive linemen. 

Ole Miss’ defense has been fantastic, while Arkansas has successfully played red zone roulette in several games this season — including its upset over Tennessee. With a sleepy 11 a.m. local kickoff, I’m not sure how buttoned up these two offenses will be. 

THE PICK: Under 53.5

No. 10 Texas A&M at South Carolina (+3.5, O/U 45.5)

Shane Beamer is staring at a ripe opportunity to secure a much-needed Top 10 upset: A night game in Williams-Bryce Stadium, coming off a bye week, against an opponent that just had a very emotional comeback win with a backup quarterback.

Texas A&M may play QB roulette again with Marcel Reed and Conner Weigman, but unlike LSU, South Carolina’s front seven (with Kyle Kennard, Dylan Stewart and Tonka Hemingway wreaking havoc) will be prepared. The Gamecocks have a legit Top 10 defense, but their offense is dreadful (115th nationally in yards per play, 64th in scoring). They’re wholly reliant on takeaways and crazy special teams plays. 

Just like he did against Bowling Green and Arkansas, I think Reed comes back down to earth, while Texas A&M’s ridiculous defensive line continues to bottle up South Carolina’s offense. 

THE PICK: Under 45.5

Vanderbilt at Auburn (-7.5, O/U 48.5)

This line is just disrespectful to Clark Lea, Diego Pavia and the ‘Dores. Vanderbilt hasn’t lost a single game by more than a touchdown all season — and that’s against the likes of Va. Tech, Missouri, Alabama and Texas. And now this Auburn team is going to deliver the Commodores their worst loss of the season?

Vandy never turns the ball over (Top 10 nationally), whereas Auburn has had the kitty cough all season (128th nationally). Pavia has also torched Hugh Freeze’s team twice in the last two years: In 2022 at New Mexico State, he led the Aggies to a 49-16 blowout with six total touchdowns, and last season, NMSU went into the Plains and upset Auburn 28-19 behind four more touchdowns. 

Anchor Down. 

THE PICK: Vandy +7.5

No. 18 Pitt at No. 20 SMU (-7.5, O/U 57.5)

I liked the Kade Bell hire by Pat Narduzzi, and the Bell-Eli Holstein offense seemed to really give the Panthers a renewed bite early in the season. But while the team remains undefeated, the offense has really regressed in ACC play (dropped from 49 points per game in the non-conference to 30.7 in league play, and that includes a game with three pick-sixes). Meanwhile, Rhett Lashlee torched Pat Narduzzi’s defenses twice while he was the OC at Miami. 

The Mustangs are beat up a bit, but after escaping last weekend at Duke where it had six turnovers and zero takeaways, I think we see a much sharper effort at home this weekend. 

THE PICK: SMU -7.5

Upset Du Jour

Minnesota at No. 24 Illinois (+2.5, O/U 45.5)

Wrong team favored?

What does the desert know here that we don’t? Minnesota is on a three-game winning streak, and transfer quarterback Max Brosmer (six touchdowns, zero picks) has been much improved. But this smells like a Wisconsin 2.0 situation to me, where the Gophers have “got right” against the likes of UCLA and Maryland. 

Illinois is coming off a week where it got bodied by Oregon, but the Fighting Illini’s two losses are to the No. 1 and No. 4 teams in the country. As both the head coach of Wisconsin and Illinois, Bret Bielema has never lost to Minnesota (10-all-time). Bert’s record stays unblemished. 

THE PICK: Illinois