Pick-Six: Week 2 best bets for NC State-Tennessee, Iowa-Iowa State, Baylor-Utah, Upset Du Jour

Well, my Week 1 picks were akin to a small child staring at the plate of food and just pushing it around without actually eating anything.  

I went 3-2 with a horrible whiff on my first upset special. 

The good: I nailed the unders in Fresno State at Michigan and Notre Dame at Texas A&M. I easily cashed Georgia -13.5 (even though the line dropped to 11 before the game) against Clemson. 

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The bad: West Virginia really wasn’t all that competitive against Penn State and LSU couldn’t convert in the red zone to beat USC. 

The ugly was undoubtedly picking Florida to outright upset Miami. Yikes. 

But lessons were learned. Information was gained.

For the uninitiated, each week, I’ll pick five games — either against the spread or over/under, plus one outright Upset De Jour. 

I’ll track the bets, and y’all can decide to fade or tail (for entertainment purposes only!) the picks. I finished the 2023 regular-season 35-28-2 ATS, and 6-7 in my weekly upset specials. 

Let’s dive into a tasty Week 2 menu. 

(All point spreads courtesy of FanDuel).

Baylor at No. 12 Utah (-14, O/U 54.5)

Cam Rising returned to action with a touchdown punch-card, as half (five of 10) his completions went for scores in Utah’s blowout win over an FCS team Saturday. He’ll face a stiffer test against Baylor on Saturday afternoon. Maybe?

Dave Aranda is back in charge of the Bears’ defense, and while they looked slightly improved against Tarleton St. (three points allowed, a couple of sacks and a pick-six), Baylor was still a mess offensively. Transfer quarterback Dequan Finn had three turnovers and now he must go up against Morgan Scalley’s defense, which has the linebackers to frustrate Baylor’s speed, spread attack. This isn’t technically a Big 12 game, but the Bears will be introduced to the horrors of playing in Rice-Eccles Stadium.

THE PICK: Utah -14

Boise State at No. 7 Oregon (-19.5, O/U 60.5)

One of the more popular picks this week is Oregon’s team-total over 40.5 points, with many expecting the Ducks’ offense to rebound after squandering several scoring chances in their too-close-for-comfort victory over Idaho. I get the logic, especially since Boise State struggled to stop Georgia Southern’s offense. 

Aston Jeanty might be the best player on the field in Autzen Stadium on Saturday, but I don’t foresee the Broncos showing much resistance against Dillon Gabriel, Jordan James and the rest of Oregon’s offense, who are ready to fly after a sluggish Week 1. I’m tempted by the total but lean Ducks covering the three-score spread in a bounce-back spot. 

THE PICK: Oregon -19.5

Iowa State at No. 21 Iowa (-3, O/U 35.5)

Iowa … with a functional offense … in this economy? The Hawkeyes put up 40 points in their opener against Illinois State, which all things considered, is akin to Ole Miss dropping 70 over the weekend. Cade McNamara isn’t some All-Big Ten QB, but he’s an All-American compared to 2023 starter Deacon Hill. 

Iowa State has some offensive prowess of its own (Rocco Becht and tailback Abu Sama III), yet this total is set like it’s a 2020 matchup between the New York Jets and the Carolina Panthers because this in-state rivalry rarely produces points. Iowa State has scored 20 points in Iowa City just once in the last 22 years. 

THE PICK: Iowa -3

No. 24 NC State vs. 14 Tennessee (-9.5, O/U 60.5)

This line has been steamed from Tennessee -6.5 to the Vols being pegged as nearly a two-score favorite after Nico Iamaleava dazzled in his 2024 debut, while NC State was in a battle with FCS Western Carolina deep into the fourth quarter. 

Grayson McCall struggled out of the gate, but NC State’s transfer quarterback eventually got humming — completing 10 passes over 15 yards. He spam’d KC Concepcion (nine catches for 121 yards and three touchdowns) all night, while transfer tight end Justin Joly also had a big game (five catches for 76 yards). 

As for the Vols, pass rusher James Pearce, who barely played against Chattanooga, could have a big day against an NC State OL that allowed six hurries versus WCU. With both offenses likely to play tempo and both secondaries suspect, I expect scoreboard fireworks in Charlotte.

THE PICK: Over 60.5

App. State at No. 25 Clemson (-17, O/U 53) 

Everything I said about the Tennessee-NC State matchup? It’s the opposite here. Both of these offenses project to play slow: Clemson always does, and in these showdowns against P5 teams, App. State does so by choice. 

Quarterback Joey Aguilar could cause some problems for the Tigers, but the Mountaineers also have to block Peter Woods, T.J. Parker, DeMonte Capehart and Jahiem Lawson for four quarters. I have no faith in Cade Klubnik or Clemson’s potential to create explosive plays, so this could be a night where Dabo Swinney rides his defense and tailbacks Phil Mafah to an ugly win before a bye week heading into the NC State game.

THE PICK: Under 53

Upset Du Jour

No. 21 Kansas at Illinois (+5.5, O/U 57.5)

This is a bit of a contrarian pick, as most models like Kansas to cover and history suggests Illinois is terrible when it actually sells out its stadium (first time since 2016 .. but its lost six-straight such games). 

However, as much as I like Jalon Daniels, Devin Neal and Daniel Hinshaw Jr., this game simply doesn’t mean a whole lot to Kansas’ season in the big picture. Sure, Lance Leipold absolutely wants to win every game, but the Jayhawks aren’t realistically in the mix for an at-large berth in the College Football Playoff. 

They could maybe win the Big 12, though. So will Leipold really expose Daniels to a potential injury running his QB wild in Champagne? Conversely, the Fighting Illini could really use an upset here to help their bowl chances come season’s end. I’m not crazy about backing Luke Altmyer, but I liked what I saw from tailback Kaden Feagin and Illinois’ transfer OL.

THE PICK: Illinois