Pick-Six: Week 7 best bets for Ohio State-Oregon, Texas-Oklahoma, Ole Miss-LSU, Upset Du Jour

Well, R’October didn’t exactly get of to a rollicking start. 

The good news is there were no curses from the Gambling Gods last week. The bad news is the Pick-Six column still dished out a couple of awful best bets (Missouri +2.5 was just grizzly, while Tennessee and Louisville covering the spreads stood no chance). 

I did nail my fifth-straight Upset Du Jour (Who says Billy Napier can’t win an upset in the Swamp!) pick, at least. 

So another 2-3 week 11-18-1, and 5-1 in my Upset Special Du Jour. 

The Week 7 menu is easily the tastiest of all season, but will the slate live up to its lofty preseason billing? Fingers crossed. 

Let’s dive into the Week 7 best bets.

(All point spreads courtesy of FanDuel).

Cal at No. 22 Pitt (-2.5, O/U 58.5)

This is a total vibes + situational spot play for me. Cal is coming off an emotional heartbreaker where they hosted ESPN College GameDay, led Miami by 25 points and then lost in devastating fashion in a game that ended just before midnight PST. 

Now the Bears have to get off the mat, fly two times zones across the country and play a Panthers squad that’s found renewed life offensively with young OC Kade Bell and former Alabama quarterback Eli Holstein. 

THE PICK: Pitt -2.5

No. 2 Texas vs. No. 18 Oklahoma (+14, O/U 50.5)

The Red River Rivalry is littered with examples of double-digit ‘dogs pulling off the upset. “Throw the records out!” in this series, right?

Not so fast my friend. Even with all the ‘Sooners Magic,’ I think this one could get ugly for Brent Venables and Oklahoma. The Sooners’ defense is could give a rusty Quinn Ewers some challenges early, but how is OU going to score Saturday? Their OL stinks. Their receiver room is a M.A.S.H. unit right now, and their freshman quarterback hasn’t attempted more than 18 passes in a game all year. 

Texas flexes, trucks OU in the second half and gets some payback after losing as a favorite last season.

THE PICK: Texas -14

No. 2 Ohio State at No. 3 Oregon (+3.5, O/U 54.5)

I did an extensive breakdown on this game earlier this week at On3, and while I see several different avenues to a Ohio State win, I think there’s really only one road to an upset for Oregon.

Make the Buckeyes one-dimensional, force Will Howard to beat them with his arm and have Dillon Gabriel rediscover the explosive passing game. Likely? But possible. 

Dan Lanning has built a roster that can go mano-a-mano with the most talented teams in the country. And the Oregon defense is solid. Ohio State’s defense is awesome. 

Considering that Dillon Gabriel has not been a big-game killer, there are questions about how Will Howard will perform under pressure and the fact both these offensive lines could have some struggles, give me the under in what could be a Big Ten slobberknocker. 

THE PICK: Under 54.5

No. 9 Ole Miss at No. 13 LSU (+3.5, O/U 62.5)

We have a College Football Playoff Loser Leaves Town Showdown on Saturday night in Baton Rouge. Winner stays in the hunt, and the loser is going to draw some real ire from an angry fan base who expected to contend for a title this season. 

Go ahead and save a tab with Message Board Geniuses pulled up. 

Ole Miss hasn’t won in Baton Rouge since 2008. LSU hasn’t lost at home at night under Brian Kelly (12-0). The Tigers are coming off a bye week, while the Rebels have played six-straight games, might be without star edge rusher Princely Umanmielen and a banged-up Tre Harris, and have an offense that’s looked awfully gummy the last two weeks. Considering Lane Kiffin’s track record in these sorts of games (0-4 against Top 25 SEC teams on the road as the HC of Ole Miss), give me the points. 

THE PICK: LSU +3.5

No. 18 Kansas State at Colorado (+3.5, O/U 56.5)

The Wildcats should win this game if they are serious Big 12 title contenders. Of course, Deion Sanders’ team is looking to prove they also have a chance to win a wide-open league in 2024. So what do you believe? For me, it’s points. Lots and lots of points. 

Avery Johnson really struggled in his first road start at BYU, but the sophomore seems to have found his footing the last few weeks. Kansas State’s offense should face little resistance against Colorado’s poor front-seven (116th passing rush, 82nd in explosive plays allowed over 20 yards). Conversely, Shedeur Sanders, Travis Hunter & Co., should have success against a Wildcats’ secondary that ranks in the 70s nationally in pass defense. 

THE PICK: Over 56.5

Upset Du Jour 

No. 11 Iowa State at West Virginia (+3.5, O/U 53.5)

I know the Cyclones have the fancy number next to their name, but this is the Big 12, and the snow-globe shakeup is coming. Most of the metrics (namely Iowa State’s passing offense vs. WVU’s secondary) favor the Cyclones, but ISU is just ok at stopping the run, and the game is in primetime at Morgantown. WVU’s lone losses are to a pair of undefeated teams in Penn State and Pitt, so why can’t Neal Brown pickoff another Top 15 team?

As if we were part of the ‘Yellojackets’ tribe, let’s embrace the chaos and root for more Big 12 cannibalization.  

THE PICK: West Virginia