Pick-Six: Week 8 best bets Nebraska-Indiana, Alabama-Tennessee, Georgia-Texas, Upset Du Jour

By golly, maybe last week was the start of a major turnaround for the Pick-Six column for the rest of the season. 

Pitt’s no-show offensively (17-15 win over Cal as 2.5-point favorites) negated a 4-1 week, but I’ll take a 3-2 showing at this point of the season. My five-game Upset Du Jour winning streak died in Morgantown, as Iowa State handled business against WVU. 

For the year, I’m now 14-20-1, and 5-2 in my Upset Special Du Jour selections. 

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The Week 8 menu has an ample of savory appetizers (Nebraska at Illinois, Alabama at Tennessee) with the tastiest entree between No. 5 Georgia at No. 1 Texas in primetime. 

So let’s dive into the Week 8 best bets.

(All point spreads courtesy of FanDuel).

Arizona State at Cincinnati (-4, O/U 49.5)

I’ve hyped up Kenny Dillingham multiple times in various columns this week, as Arizona State has been one of the surprising winners of the 2024 season at the halfway point. But this is a tough spot for the Sun Devils — coming off an emotional upset over Utah and then having to play in Nippert Stadium at noon (body clock theory). Oh, and starting quarterback Sam Levitt is sidelined, so in steps Jeff ‘Puff Pie’ Sims, who produces more turnovers than your favorite local bakery. 

 Cincy has been surprisingly good this season, too. Scott Satterfield has really found something in Indiana transfer Brendan Sorsby at quarterback (17 total touchdowns to three picks). The Bearcats rank No. 2 in the Big 12 in yards per play. I think Jared Barlett and Dontay Corleone can bottle up Cam Skattebo enough to get this one home. 

THE PICK: Cincy -4

Nebraska at No. 16 Indiana (-6.5, O/U 50.5)

The Hoosiers haven’t trailed for a single minute during the entire 2024 season. Will that change Saturday? I don’t know, but this looks like too many darn points against easily the best defense Kurtis Rourke will have seen all season. Indiana’s offensive line will be tested by a Nebraska unit (Ty Robinson and James Williams off the edge with Nash Hutmacher bullying teams inside) that leads the Big 10 in sacks (20). 

I don’t have much faith in Nebraska’s run game, but freshman quarterback Dylan Raiola and long, speedy wideouts Isaiah Neyor (17.1 yards per catch) and Jamal Banks (13.5 yards per catch) should have some opportunities against Indiana’s untested secondary. Curt Cignetti is the ‘I Win’ King, and that could stay true — but the Cornhuskers cover.

THE PICK: Nebraska +6.5

South Carolina at Oklahoma (-1.5, O/U 41.5)

First team to double-digits wins? 

This is a gotta-have-it spot for Brent Venables and the Sooners. I know their receiver room is an infirmary ward, their OL stinks and they’re pretending that Jackson Arnold may still be a factor at quarterback (SPOILER: No he won’t. He seems destined to redshirt the rest of the season), but Venables cannot lose to this Gamecocks team at home. Not in Year 3.

As awesome as South Carolina’s defensive line has been this season (Kyle Kennard is making himself some serious money every Saturday), their OL-QB combination has basically been just as bad as Oklahoma’s. The Gamecocks have allowed a nation’s-worst 26 sacks. LaNorris Sellers has almost 3X as many turnovers (11 picks + fumbles) as touchdowns (four). I think Danny Stutsman, Billy Bowman and OU’s defense carry the Sooners to a close win. 

THE PICK: Oklahoma -1.5

No. 7 Alabama at No. 11 Tennessee (+3.5, O/U 56.5)

This line has moved a lot in the last two days, dipping as low as Alabama -2 in some markets but settling north of 3.5 as we inch closer to game time. But I want nothing to do with the side here. I don’t trust either team. But the total here suggests a Vols offensive resurgence. 

On what evidence? I understand that Alabama’s defense has been exposed the last 10 quarters against Georgia, Vanderbilt and South Carolina, but Tennessee has been held scoreless in two straight first-halves by lesser defenses. Maybe Nico Iamaleava has his breakout performance and this becomes a shootout like 2022. I’m slightly concerned about the absence of linebacker Keenan Pili for Tennessee’s defense, but I still think the unit is salty enough to frustrate Jalen Milroe into a mistake or two. 

THE PICK: Under 56.5

No. 5 Georgia at No. 1 Texas (-4.5, O/U 56)

The Game of the Week of the Year of the Season: Part Trois. There’s been a lot of discussion this week about Texas looking like 2021-23 Georgia. That might be true. What definitely is true is that when the Bulldogs have played in these types of games — Top 5 matchups with major implications — the games (even despite all the other-worldly defensive talent) tend to get loose. 

2018 SEC Championship Game — No. 1 Alabama 35, No. 4 Georgia 28

2020 regular season — No. 2 Alabama 41, No. 3 Georgia 24

2021 SEC Championship Game — No. 3 Alabama 41, No. 1 Georgia 28

2021 National Championship — No. 3 Georgia 33, Alabama 18

2023 SEC Championship — No. 8 Alabama 27, No. 1 Georgia 24

2024 Regular season — No. 4 Alabama 41, No. 2 Georgia 34

It’s not just a Georgia-Alabama thing, either. Alabama-Tennessee was a fireworks affair two years ago. Ohio State-Oregon just combined for 63 points last weekend! I think both offenses find daylight in the primetime affair everyone has waited for since the schedule was announced.

THE PICK: Over 56

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Upset Du Jour 

Kentucky at Florida (+1.5, O/U 42.5)

This is a hold-your-nose special, but for the second time in three weeks, I’m riding with Billy and the boys to get it done in the Swamp as a slight underdog. 

For a game featuring two 3-3 teams, the stakes are pretty high here for one team — the desperate home team. Billy Napier is already on a scorching hot seat, and last weekend’s collapse against a Top 10 Tennessee team ruined a major opportunity to engender any remaining goodwill from a fan base ready to check out. Now it’s all about salvation for as long as possible, and when you see the rest of Florida’s schedule, there might not be another chance at a win until Thanksgiving. With a bye week after Saturday, Napier needs this one. It’s the DJ Lagway Show now, and I think the freshman quarterback makes enough plays to secure a slight upset win.

THE PICK: Florida