Pick-Six: Week 9 best bets LSU-Texas A&M, Florida State-Miami, Illinois-Oregon, Notre Dame-Navy, more

The Pick-Six column has made its fair share of bad best bets this season, but last week featured two stinkers so terrible the piece might need a fumigation. 

Oklahoma -1.5 over South Carolina 

Nebraska +6.5 at Indiana

I wrote that Brent Venables and the Sooners (in Year 3) were in a “gotta-have-it-spot.” Well, SPOILER: They indeed did not have it. Oklahoma got waxed at home 35-9 by South Carolina, benching quarterback Michael Hawkins Jr. for a sully Jackson Arnold and then firing OC Seth Littrell the next day. 

And yet, my Nebraska pick was even worse! The Cornhuskers got splattered at Indiana, losing by 49 points in the Hoosiers’ biggest Big Ten blowout since World War II.

Talk about misreading a game. I also whiffed on the Georgia-Texas over, but did nail Cincy -4 over Arizona State and the under in Alabama–Tennessee. Oh, and Billy Napier did deliver the Pick-Six with another winning Upset Du Jour. 

For the year, I’m now 16-23-1, and 6-2 in my Upset Special Du Jour selections. Maybe the fumigation will get rid of all my bad picks?

We can only hope. 

This is a really great slate of games this weekend, so let’s dive into the Week 9 best bets.

(All point spreads courtesy of FanDuel).

No. 17 Boise State at UNLV (+3.5, O/U 64.5)

This is potentially a Group of 5 playoff elimination game — if the Rebels are able to pull off the upset. Boise State is the current frontrunner to make the 12-team field with a strong resume that includes a 3-point loss at No. 1 Oregon, but the Broncos still need to win the Mountain West to make sure that happens. Can Ashton Jeanty lead them back to another Cinderella season? I expect a fireworks show in Las Vegas on Friday night. Both offenses rank in the Top 12 nationally in scoring, and neither defense has really been tested to date.  Notably, both teams aren’t great at stopping opponents from converting red zone chances into touchdowns. I think Jeanty goes off for another 200-ish game, but Hajj-Malik Williams is going to make his share of touchdowns-worthy plays, too. 

THE PICK: Over 64.5

No. 12 Notre Dame vs. Navy (+12.5, O/U 51.5)

In my Week 8 Mailbag, I was asked if Notre Dame was on upset alert this weekend, and I gave real credence to Navy, which had sunk teams from the opening kickoff, a chance to engineer a stunner. But the more I dove into this matchup, the less I liked the Midshipman’s chances. 

Notre Dame faces these option teams every year, so it isn’t going to be surprised by what Navy throws (literally this season!) its way. Despite the Irish’s injuries along the defensive line, they did just limit a good Georgia Tech rushing attack to just 64 yards at 2.2 per carry. When you account for Navy’s weak schedule, that Notre Dame is Top 10 nationally in a host of analytical metrics and the fact that Riley Leonard has continued to improve each week, this line looks a tad short.

THE PICK: Notre Dame -12.5

Florida State at No. 6 Miami (-20.5, O/U 54.5)

This is an all-vibes play. Mario Cristobal is going to be out for blood Saturday. Two years ago, (in Cristobal’s first season at Miami) Mike Norvell ran it up on the Hurricanes in a 45-3 win — punching in two touchdowns in the fourth quarter up 31-3. Now is Cristobal’s chance at some revenge. 

The Seminoles are 1-6, and while they may show some pride in a rivalry game with all sorts of familiarity on both sides, Miami is going to lay on the gas — nonstop. With few primetime opportunities remaining on the schedule, Cam Ward may do everything he can to give Heisman Trophy voters a performance to remember.  

THE PICK: Miami -20.5

No. 20 Illinois at No. 1 Oregon (-21.5, O/U 55)

The Fighting Illini played red zone roulette in a 21-7 loss at Penn State earlier this season, and I expect a similar gameplan from Bret Bielema’s team as a three-touchdown underdog in Autzen Stadium on Saturday night. Neither of these offenses are great at finishing drives with touchdowns (both rank outside the Top 45 nationally), and while Dillon Gabriel, Evan Stewart & Co., are talked about as high-octane attack with the way they produced splash plays against Ohio State, they rank 54th nationally in explosive gains over 20 yards — way down from the Ducks’ 11th ranking in 2023. 

I expect Oregon to cruise, but I think both defenses offer up enough resistance to keep the total under. 

THE PICK: Under 55

No. 3 Penn State at Wisconsin (+6.5, O/U 47.5)

The Badgers have allowed just 16 points during their recent three-game winning streak, but Penn State represents a major leap in competition compared to Purdue, Rutgers and Northwestern. This is a tough test for Luke Fickell’s team, which is playing better. 

The Nittany Lions are in a tricky, look-ahead spot coming off an emotional comeback win over USC, a bye week and then Ohio State next Saturday. James Franklin isn’t great off an idle date, either. And yet, he’s awesome at covering the spread on the road as the head coach at PSU (nearly a 60% clip). According to Spenser Davis at Saturday Road, Franklin is 21-13-1 ATS as a road favorite with the Nittany Lions. With a Big Ten title berth in real reach, I think PSU covers the number on the road.

THE PICK: Penn State -6.5

Upset Du Jour

No. 8 LSU at No. 14 Texas A&M (-2.5, O/U 53.5)

This is a strength (LSU’s offensive line, which has allowed just 2.0 sacks all season) on strength (Texas A&M’s defensive line, which ranks 25th nationally in pressure rate) matchup. The Tigers’ defense has shown weekly improvements since the comeback over South Carolina, but can they bottle up Texas A&M’s rushing attack (No. 1 in the SEC in yards per carry) like they did Ole Miss two weeks ago? 

This game is at night in College Station, but the Aggies have a recent history of squandering a solid home-field advantage. To me, this showdown comes down to which quarterback do you trust more: And Garrett Nussmeier has been the far superior player (both from a consistency standpoint and upside) than Conner Weigman. The Tigers are also a bit more battle-tested lately and are eying a Year 3 breakthrough under Brian Kelly. 

THE PICK: LSU