Samford vs. Kansas odds: Win probability, final score prediction in NCAA Tournament

The No. 13 seed Samford Bulldogs and No. 4 seed Kansas Jayhawks are preparing for their highly anticipated first round matchup in the 2024 NCAA Tournament. The Jayhawks were dealt some brutal news ahead of the game, when head coach Bill Self ruled his leading scorer, Kevin McCullar, out for the entire NCAA Tournament.

He’s been dealing with a nagging knee injury.

Like plenty of other teams across the country, Kansas has had an up-and-down season this year, with impressive wins over Kentucky, Tennessee, and Houston. But the Jayhawks got whipped in their rematch with the Cougars (76-46). Kevin McCullar was dealing with his knee injury in that one and didn’t play at all in the second half. Kansas big man, Hunter Dickinson, will play in Thursday’s matchup, despite missing the Big 12 Tournament with a dislocated shoulder.

The Samford Bulldogs punched their tickets to the NCAA Tournament this year for the first time since 2000. They won their first-ever SoCon Tournament Title with a 76-69 win over the ETSU Buccaneers. In reaching 29 wins, the Bulldogs have won the most games in program history. Their head coach, Bucky McMillan, has led their program to unprecedented success in his four years there.

Samford figures to be a trendy upset pick over the Jayhawks, as Seth Davis immediately put Kansas on upset alert in the NCAA Tournament Bracket Selection Show on Sunday evening.

Odds for Samford vs. Kansas

Vegas tends to think this game could be pretty close. Kansas is currently only a 6.5-point favorite, according to FanDuel. The Jayhawks are listed at -310 to win on the money line. And the over/under for this one is slated at 153.5 total points.

Samford features four players that average double digits. The Bulldogs are one of the highest-scoring teams in the country at 84.3 points per game, ranking them seventh in America. Kansas is averaging 75.0 points per game, ranking them 111th in the nation.

Final score predictions for Samford vs. Kansas

BPI Predicted winner: Kansas
BPI Predicted point differential: 11.5
BPI Win probability (for Kansas): 83.8 percent
BPI Matchup Quality: 74.9

ESPN’s BPI is a model designed to provide a statistical comparison between two teams and predict future success. It appears that the BPI model disagrees with Vegas as to how this game is going to play out, by several points. The BPI gives the Jayhawks an 83.8 percent chance of winning. The point differential is listed at 11.5 points, nearly double the spread that Vegas has the game listed at on FanDuel.

The BPI gives this matchup a matchup quality score of 74.9, which ranks 9th among all the games in the NCAA Tournament on Thursday. That ranks it about right in the middle of the pack.

KenPom Predicted final score: Samford 74, Kansas 81
KenPom Win probability (for Kansas): 73 percent

KenPom is another predictive metrics system for college basketball. It’s designed to show how strong a team is at a given time, without taking factors like injuries into account. KenPom seems to agree with Vegas that this game is going to be relatively close, with the Jayhawks winning by seven points.

He gives Kansas a 73 percent chance to win the game, which is just a little bit lower than the BPI.

How to watch Samford vs. Kansas

Time: 9:55 p.m. ET
Channel: TBS (actual channel), Prime Video (streaming)
Location: Delta Center–Salt Lake City, Utah

You can watch the tournament live on Prime Video, add on your favorite channels and watch at home or on your phone and laptop at work!

Samford and Kansas are set to tip off at 9:55 p.m. EST. The game will be televised on TBS and will be streamed on Amazon Prime Video. It will be played at a neutral site in Salt Lake City, Utah. The first-round contest will be played in the Delta Center, home of the NBA’s Utah Jazz.