St. Mary's vs. Alabama odds: Current line, win probability, final score prediction, how to watch NCAA Tournament

The NCAA Tournament is roaring on, and the East Region will determine their four participants in the Sweet 16 over the weekend. As part of the fun, No. 2-seed Alabama will face No. 7-seed St. Mary’s on Sunday.

Many of the top seeds took care of business in grand fashion in the Round of 64. Alabama had a little bit of trouble on their hands. Robert Morris gave them all they could handle, and it took a late push to bring the Crimson Tide to the Round of 32. They only won by nine in the end.

Still, a win is a win, and that’s what St. Mary’s accomplished as well. They defeated a team Alabama knows well in Vanderbilt during the First Round. Now, the Gaels will be looking to dethrone another vaunted SEC team. Here’s everything you need to know ahead of Sunday’s game.

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Odds for St. Mary’s vs. Alabama

Coming into the game, Alabama is a 5.5-point favorite over St. Mary’s, per FanDuel. The Crimson Tide are also currently listed at -230 for the money-line right now, while the Gaels are sitting at +188.

The point total for the game is currently set at 148.5 points. It’s certainly feasible that these two teams reach that number when they face off, and all the chips are pushed to the center of the table.

Final score predictions for St. Mary’s vs. Alabama

BPI Predicted winner: Alabama
BPI Predicted point differential: 5.2
BPI Win probability (for Alabama): 69.7%
BPI Matchup Quality: 88.7

ESPN’s BPI is a model designed to provide a statistical comparison between two teams and predict future success. It agrees with Vegas about what to expect from this game. Leading into the game, BPI is projecting a point differential of 5.2 points in Alabama’s favor. It also gives the Crimson Tide a 69.7% chance to win the game over the Gaels.

BPI also gives this game a matchup quality score of 88.7. It’s among the best quality scores of Sunday’s college basketball slate.

KenPom Predicted final score: Alabama 77, St. Mary’s 73
KenPom Win probability (for Alabama): 65%

KenPom is another predictive system for college basketball. It’s designed to show how strong a team is at a given time, without taking factors like injuries into account. For this game between Alabama and St. Mary’s, KenPom agrees with BPI and Vegas, projecting the Crimson Tide to be victorious.

How to watch St. Mary’s vs. Alabama

Time: 6:10 p.m. ET
Channel: TNT
Location: Rocket Arena | Cleveland, OH

Alabama and St. Mary’s are set to tip off at 6:10 p.m. EST. It will also be played at the Rocket Arena in Cleveland, as part of a huge Round of 32 showdown between two of the more fascinating teams in college basketball. For fans outside of Ohio, the game can be watched on TNT.

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