Texas vs. Tennessee odds: Current line, win probability, final score prediction, how to watch SEC Tournament

No. 4 Tennessee vs. No. 13 Texas will tip off this afternoon as the second game today in the quarterfinals of the SEC Tournament. It’ll be the first appearance for the Vols in their home state while the Longhorns have made the very most of their two days so far spent in Nashville.

Tennessee (25-6, 12-6) will take the court for the first time in this tournament today as the last of the four teams with a double bye. That’s after the Volunteers won 8-of-10 to end the regular season, as they’re not only a top-four seed in the SEC but are looking to set themselves as a No. 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Another win to put Tennessee into the semifinals on Saturday would only help them in doing that heading into Selection Sunday.

Speaking of Selection Sunday, Texas (19-14, 6-12) sits in a better spot now than it did two days ago. The Longhorns, after losing two-thirds of their conference games in their debut in the league, including seven of their final ten, have won two straight. That includes a huge, double-overtime win in the second round, to be in the quarterfinals of the SEC Tournament. That has the Longhorns trending up on the bubble and back into the NCAA Tournament as yet another berth for a record-breaking total in the Southeastern Conference.

For reference, Tennessee beat Texas by four in Austin back in the second game of conference play on January 11th. Despite 26 points for Tre Johnson and 53 combined with him, Jordan Pope and Tramon Mark weren’t enough as the Volunteers pulled away late behind contributions throughout, namely Zakai Zeigler with 16 points and eight assists.

Odds for Texas vs. Tennessee

Per the latest odds on FanDuel, Tennessee is a 9.5-point favorite (-120) over Texas this afternoon. That has the Longhorns at (+400) on the moneyline as just under a double-digit underdog.

The total for the game is set at a total of 135.5. Fatigue is likely playing into that number with Texas on its third game, including those extra 10 minutes yesterday, in three days – not to mention that game being against the best defense in the sport for Tennessee.

Final score predictions for Texas vs. Tennessee

BPI Predicted Winner: Tennessee
BPI Predicted Point Differential: 6.1
BPI Win Probability (for Tennessee): 72.6%
BPI Matchup Quality: 87.8

ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI) is leaning at least a little close to the Longhorns. It has Tennessee projected to win by just over six points with a win probability of 72.6% for the Volunteers.

As for matchup quality, this is the eleventh-best game on the slate in college basketball for Friday. As for the SEC Tournament, it’s behind two of the other quarterfinals in No. 3 Alabama vs. No. 6 Kentucky and No. 2 Florida vs. No. 7 Missouri while being just ahead of the first one of the day this morning with No. 1 Auburn vs. No. 8 Ole Miss.

KenPom Predicted Final Score: Tennessee 72, Texas 63
KenPom Win Probability (for Tennessee): 79%

KenPom has a projection that’s then right in between the spread and the projection from BPI. It has Tennessee winning by nine with a slightly higher win probability of 79%.

How to watch Texas vs. Tennessee

Time: 3:30 p.m. EST, 2:30 p.m. CT
Channel: ESPN
Location: Bridgestone Arena (Nashville, Tennessee)

This remains an important matchup ahead of Sunday, with Tennessee trying to move up to again being a No. 1 seed while Texas tries to get as far up on the bubble as they can for its own berth. Only one of the teams will advance to the semifinals tomorrow, though, to play the winner of the Tigers and Rebels – with the Volunteers having an edge in each of the projections here heading into tip-off.