Troy vs. Kentucky odds: Current line, win probability, final score prediction, how to watch NCAA Tournament

On Friday, 3-seed Kentucky will square off against 14-seed Troy in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. The two teams are in the Midwest Region and will play in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.

Kentucky is coming off a fantastic debut regular season under head coach Mark Pope, in which the team recorded a program-record eight wins against Top 15 opponents. However, the regular season is only worth so much in the hearts of fans, and Pope knows the pressure is on to deliver in March.

Unlike the Wildcats, Troy punched its ticket to the Big Dance by winning its conference tournament. Now, the Trojans are hungry to keep their momentum rolling. The team is led by Tayton Conerway, who averages 2.9 steals per game, the third-most in the nation.

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Odds for Troy vs. Kentucky

According to FanDuel, Kentucky is an 11.5-point favorite against Troy. Additionally, the Wildcats boast -650 odds on the money line.

The over/under for the game is set at 152.5 points. For reference, Kentucky is averaging 85.3 points per game while Troy is averaging 73.9.

Final score predictions for Troy vs. Kentucky

BPI Predicted winner: Kentucky
BPI Predicted point differential: 13.0
BPI Win probability (for Kentucky): 88.9 percent
BPI Matchup Quality: 68.6

ESPN’s BPI is a model designed to provide a statistical comparison between two teams and predict future success. It has even more confidence in Kentucky than FanDuel and is projecting the Wildcats to run away with a 13-point win.

KenPom Predicted final score: Kentucky 82, Troy 70
KenPom Win probability (for Kentucky): 86 percent

KenPom is another predictive system for college basketball. It’s designed to show how strong a team is at a given time without taking factors like injuries into account. It predicts Kentucky will handily defeat the Trojans by 12 points and advance to the Round of 32.

How to watch Troy vs. Kentucky

Time: 7:10 p.m. ET, March 21
Channel: CBS
Location: Milwaukee, WI — Fiserv Forum

Kentucky and Troy will clash at 7:10 p.m. ET on Friday inside the Fiserv Forum, home of the Milwaukee Bucks. The game will air live on CBS. It’ll be Troy’s first appearance in the NCAA Tournament since the 2016-17 season.

The Trojans aren’t the only ones in unfamiliar territory. Mark Pope has only coached in the NCAA Tournament twice and lost both times in the first round. He’ll look to avoid repeating history on Friday as he makes his first appearance as Kentucky’s head man.

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