UCLA vs. Tennessee odds: Current line, win probability, final score prediction, how to watch NCAA Tournament

The final game of the first day of Round of 32 action in the 2025 NCAA Tournament could be one of the best of the opening weekend, with No. 6 Tennessee playing UCLA in a 2-versus-7 matchup Saturday evening. The second-seeded Volunteers (28-7) are 8-2 in their last 10 games, including losing in the SEC Tournament championship game to Florida, while the seventh-seeded Bruins (23-10) are 5-4 since ending a seven-game winning streak, including a lopsided loss to Wisconsin the Big Ten Tournament quarterfinals.

Tennessee is outscoring opponents 76-70.8 over its last 10 games while shooting 46.8% from the field, while UCLA has averaged 72.9 points while limiting teams to 67.1 points over its last 10 games. Senior guard Chaz Lanier leads the Vols averaging 18 points per game while shooting 40.3% from 3-point range, averaging 3.3 treys per game, while fellow senior guard Zakai Zeigler is averaging 15.3 points, 7.5 assists and 1.6 steals over Tennessee’s last 10 games.

Meanwhile, UCLA is led offensively by junior forward Tyler Bilodeau, who is averaging a team-high 13.5 points and 4.6 rebounds on a 49.5% shooting clip, with the guard trio of Eric Dailey Jr., Sebastian Mack and Skyy Clark averaging a combined 29.6 points per game this season between them.

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Odds for UCLA vs. Tennessee

Entering the Round of 32, No. 2-seed Tennessee is a slight 4.5-point favorite over 7th-seeded UCLA, per FanDuel. The Volunteers out of the SEC are also listed with -210 moneyline, while the Big Ten’s Bruins are sitting at +172.

Oddsmakers expect a tight, defensive-minded game. The point total for the game is currently set at just 131.5 points.

Final score predictions for UCLA vs. Tennessee

BPI Predicted winner: Tennessee
BPI Predicted point differential: 4.6
BPI Win probability (for Tennessee): 67.6%
BPI Matchup Quality: 89.8

ESPN’s BPI is a model designed to provide a statistical comparison between two teams and predict future success. Leading into the game, BPI is projecting a point differential of 4.6 points in the Volunteers’ favor. It also gives Tennessee a 67.6-percent chance to win the NCAA Tournament game over the Bruins.

BPI also gives this game a matchup quality score of 89.8. That is the third-best quality score of Saturday’s slate of games.

KenPom Predicted final score: Tennessee 67, UCLA 62
KenPom Win probability (for Tennessee): 67%

KenPom is another predictive system for college basketball. It’s designed to show how strong a team is at a given time, without taking factors like injuries into account. For this NCAA Tournament game between Tennessee and UCLA, KenPom agrees with BPI and Vegas, with the Volunteers projected to win by five points in a defensive showdown.

How to watch UCLA vs. Tennessee

Time: 9:40 pm ET, Saturday
Channel: TBS/truTV
Location: Rupp Arena, Lexington (Kentucky)

Tennessee and UCLA have the late-night tip-off with a 9:40 pm ET start Saturday from inside Lexington’s Rupp Arena in the second round of the 2025 NCAA Tournament. For fans who can’t make the game, it will be televised on TBS and truTV. Coverage of the NCAA Tournament will air live throughout the day on TNT, TruTV, CBS and TBS.

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