Urban Meyer picks Penn State to cover spread vs. Ohio State

Urban Meyer coached Ohio State in four games at Penn State. The last three of them were decided by one score, and the Nittany Lions won the 2016 matchup in dramatic, upset fashion.

Meyer sees this week’s Happy Valley meeting between No. 3 Penn State (7-0, 4-0 Big Ten0 and No. 4 Ohio State (6-1, 3-1) as an “even game” that will be dictated by the health of either team.

On one hand, the status of Nittany Lions starting quarterback Drew Allar is up in the air after he left last week’s game against Wisconsin with an apparent left knee injury. On the other hand, the Buckeyes are already without their starting left tackle, Josh Simmons, and could be missing their their backup, Zen Michalski, as well.

Despite already having one loss on the season — albeit a one-point defeat to now-top-ranked Oregon — and being on the road, the Buckeyes are a 3.5-point favorite, according to FanDuel.

“It’s down to 3.5,” Meyer said of the spread this week on “The Triple Option” podcast. “I don’t have to pick the winner. I just have to pick the spread, right?

“I think Penn State covers the spread. I think this is going to be a walk-off one of the two teams. I don’t know, I’m not ready to make a pick on who’s gonna win. But this will be a one, two-point game.”

Meyer emphasized that this is a bad time for Ohio State to go into a game with two injures on its offensive line, especially at the left tackle position on the road versus a Penn State team that some of the most talented pass rushers in the Big Ten, including a high-end NFL Draft prospect in Abdul Carter.

“First of all, you’re on the road, so you’re going to deal with some noise issues,” Meyer explained. “The further you move away from center, noise is an issue. Because you can’t go with cadence. You can’t hear. So they’re either going to do the clap — and sometimes claps don’t work in those stadiums — [or] you’re going to go on movement by the center.”

Meyer continued: “And the further you move out, this is really important. … The guard’s sitting right next to the center. He can see the movement. A lot of times it’s a head bob. It’s something, they move their arm — usually it’s a head bob. The guard can see it. Plus, the guard’s playing in a confined space. You put the tackle against an Abdul Carter, some of those really fast defensive ends. This is how bizarre it is, I actually taught it — you’re going to try to two-way this thing as an offensive tackle.

“First of all, you’re a little bit further off the line of scrimmage. A lot of times a guard’s helmet is in your way, and you’re going to watch that center. But you also got a problem. There’s a guy that’s going to get paid a lot of money in the NFL that’s going to be rushing off the edge. I would not leave that tackle alone for a minute. I’d have a tight end there. I’d have a tail back there.”

In addition to giving whoever plays left tackle additional support, Ohio State must run quarterback Will Howard, Meyer said.

“He’s gotta have 20 carries,” the former Buckeyes head coach declared.

Ohio State rushed for a season-low 64 yards last week against Nebraska in a too-close-for-comfort, 21-17 win — that was the Buckeyes’ first full game without Simmons at left tackle.

The Buckeyes will have to find a way to run the ball, or overcome their deficiency in that department, at Penn State this weekend. Either way, Meyer sees the head-to-head going down to the wire.