Utah State vs. Purdue odds: Win probability, final score prediction in NCAA Tournament

Purdue took care of Grambling and Utah State scored a thrilling victory over TCU in round one to setup a second-round matchup between the Boilermakers and Aggies.

While Purdue advanced in rather boring fashion, Utah State and first-year head coach Danny Sprinkle included some flair in their dominant second half against the Horned Frogs. Darius Brown II threw up some absurd shots, Great Osobor made plenty of plays, Isaac Johnson had the game of his life, and Ian Martinez tried to end a man’s life on a dunk attempt as part of a terrific overall performance from him.

So, in what should be an electric round two matchup, take a look at the various pregame info — point spreads, predictions, TV info, etc. — ahead of the game:

Odds for Utah State vs. Purdue

FanDuel spread: Purdue -10.5 points
Money line: Purdue (-670), Utah State (+480)
Over/Under: 148.5 total points

Predictably, the Boilermakers open as sizeable favorites in their second game of the NCAA Tournament and are projected winners of just over 10 points by FanDuel. They also get the huge nod on the money line at -670, which is hardly worth betting. Meanwhile, Utah State is nearly 5-1 to pull off the huge upset to unseat a No. 1 seed.

Final score predictions

KenPom final score: 81-72 Purdue
KenPom win probability: Purdue 80%

Our good friend Ken Pomeroy foresees a nine-point victory by the Boilermakers, pretty closely in line with what the oddsmakers have as well. Plus, KP believes the chance of a Utah State win is 5-1, almost dead-on the money line for the Aggies.

BPI prediction: Purdue by 16 points
BPI win probability: Purdue 93.4%
BPI matchup quality: 77.0 (8th of the day)

ESPN’s Basketball Power Index strayed pretty far away from the line/prediction from FanDuel and KenPom, predicting a Purdue win by 16 points over No. 8 seed Utah State. It also believes the Boilermakers have a 93% chance of victory compared to the roughly 80% from the other two. With such a huge blowout projected, ESPN has this contest ranked dead last among NCAA Tournament games Sunday in terms of matchup quality. Clearly, the BPI does not respect Utah State.

How to wacth

Time: 2:40 p.m. ET / 1:40 p.m. CT / 12:40 p.m. MT on Sunday
Channel: (CBS), Prime Video (streaming)
Location: Gainbridge Fieldhouse (Indianapolis, Indiana)

You can watch the tournament live on Prime Video, add on your favorite channels and watch at home or on your phone and laptop at work!

After getting the monkey off their back in round one, Purdue now faces an athletic and exciting Utah State club that can very well make a game out of Sunday’s contest. But we’ll just have to see if the Aggies can deal with Zach Edey in any effective way.