Vanderbilt vs. Kentucky odds: Win probability, final score prediction for Commodores, Wildcats

Riding a three-game winning streak, Kentucky welcomes in Vanderbilt for Senior Night in Rupp Arena in a matchup where the Wildcats are heavily favored.

This scenario may feel like deja vu for UK and Vandy, who met in Lexington on a Wednesday evening in March last season as well, with the Commodores beating the ‘Cats on Oscar Tshiebwe’s senior night a week before they would beat them again at the SEC Tournament. Now, Kentucky has the upper hand so far this season with a 109-77 win back in February, but Jerry Stackhouse has been a pesky matchup for John Calipari.

To see all the relevant info for Kentucky vs. Vanderbilt — point spreads, score predictions and TV info — just look below.

Odds for Vanderbilt vs. Kentucky

FanDuel line: Kentucky -17.5
FanDuel over/under: 160.5 total points

After the beatdown in Nashville roughly a month ago, FanDuel gave Kentucky the heavy edge. While they did fall in the same situation to Vandy a year ago, it’s the Commodores who took a step back and are currently 13th in the SEC at 3-13 following a fourth-place finish in 2023. A top-15 Kentucky team ought to be heavy favorites vs. a foe like that.

Final score predictions

KenPom final score: Kentucky 89, Vanderbilt 69
KenPom win probability: Kentucky 97%

The ‘Cats took home victory by 32 points last time around and Ken Pomeroy calls for an easy 20-point win to end UK’s home slate. What’s interesting is KenPom’s final score is a bit lower scoring, with Kentucky not even breaking 90 after they’ve done so in three straight games and hung 109 on this same team on the road. To that same point, 69 points would be one of the lowest totals for a Kentucky opponent yet.

BPI margin of victory: Kentucky by 23.7 points
BPI win probability: Kentucky 97.1%

Vanderbilt likely didn’t have a huge win probability walking into Rupp Arena a year ago, but their odds are really slim this season with a 2.9% to win per ESPN’s Basketball Power Index. The BPI is also by far the most bullish on Kentucky, predicting the Wildcats to win by 23 points in their sendoff to Rupp Arena.

How to watch

Time: 9:00 p.m. ET / 8 p.m. CT
Channel: (SECN), FuboTV (streaming)
Location: Lexington, Kentucky (Rupp Arena)

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Vanderbilt comes to town for a senior day that actually means something in Lexington. Typically, with so few upperclassmen, there’s rarely one to honor, but the ‘Cats had Tshiebwe last season and now have Antonio Reeves and Tre Mitchell to honor this season in what should be an emotional pregame ceremony.