Vanderbilt vs. Saint Mary's odds: Current line, win probability, final score prediction, how to watch NCAA Tournament

Vanderbilt and No. 20 Saint Mary’s open play in the 2025 NCAA Tournament on Friday in an always intriguing 10-versus-7 game out of the East Region. The Gaels (28-5, 17-1 WCC) enter March Madness after losing to second-seeded Gonzaga in the the West Coast Conference Tournament championship game, halting an eight-game win streak to end the regular season.

The Commodores (20-12, 8-11 SEC) share a similar story. They are also entering March Madness on a losing streak after dropping its last two regular-season games before a one-and-done exit in the SEC Tournament last week.

Vanderbilt is led offensively by junior guard Jason Edwards, who is averaging 17 points per game on 44.6% shooting. Meanwhile, Saint Mary’s senior guard Augustas Marciulionis, an import from Lithuania, leads the Gaels, averaging 14.3 points and 6.1 assists on 44.9% shooting.

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Odds for Vanderbilt vs. Saint Mary’s

Entering Thursday, No. 7-seed Saint Mary’s is a slight 4.5-point favorite over 10th-seeded Vanderbilt, per FanDuel. The Gaels are also listed with -182 moneyline, while the Commodores are sitting at +150.

Oddsmakers are expected a low-scoring affair. The over-under point total for the game is currently set at 135.5 points.

Final score predictions for Vanderbilt vs. Saint Mary’s

BPI Predicted winner: Saint Mary’s
BPI Predicted point differential: 4.1
BPI Win probability (for Saint Mary’s): 66%
BPI Matchup Quality: 79.2

ESPN’s BPI is a model designed to provide a statistical comparison between two teams and predict future success. Leading into the game, BPI is projecting a point differential of 4.1 points in Saint Mary’s favor. It also gives the Gaels a 66-percent chance to win the NCAA Tournament game over the Commodores.

BPI also gives this game a matchup quality score of 79.2. That is the sixth-best quality score of Friday’s slate.

KenPom Predicted final score: Saint Mary’s 71, Vanderbilt 67
KenPom Win probability (for Florida): 66%

KenPom is another predictive system for college basketball. It’s designed to show how strong a team is at a given time, without taking factors like injuries into account. For this NCAA Tournament game between Vanderbilt and Saint Mary’s, KenPom agrees with BPI and Vegas, projecting the Gaels to win a close one.

How to watch Vanderbilt vs. Saint Mary’s

Time: 3:15 pm ET, Friday
Channel: truTV
Location: Rocket Arena, Cleveland (Ohio)

Vanderbilt and Saint Mary’s tip off at 3:15 pm ET on Friday from inside Cleveland’s Rocket Arena in Ohio, as part of the 2025 NCAA Tournament.

For fans that can’t make the game, it will be televised on truTV. Coverage of the NCAA Tournament will air live throughout the day on TNT, TruTV, CBS and TBS.

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