Wagner vs. North Carolina odds: Win probability, final score prediction in NCAA Tournament

In the first round of the NCAA tournament’s West Region, the top-seeded North Carolina Tar Heels, will take on the Wagner Seahawks in a No. 1 vs. No. 16 showdown. North Carolina finished the season as ACC regular season champs and ranked No. 9 in the nation. And because of their performance this season, they were awarded the No. 1 seed in the West Region. Wagner, on the other hand, earned the right to play the Tar Heels on Tuesday night after beating Howard in their First Four contest.

This year’s trip to the NCAA tournament will be North Carolina’s 53rd appearance, second most all-time only behind the Duke Blue Devils, thanks to the play from Tar Heels guard R.J. Davis, who captured the ACC Player of the Year award for his impressive play this season. The Tar Heels are 131-49 in the NCAA tournament, which is the most wins in tournament history.

Wagner, on the other hand, is on the completely opposite side of the spectrum in terms of March Madness experience. This is the Seahawks’ second trip to the NCAA tournament, with their last one happening 21 years ago in 2003, which resulted in an opening-round loss to the Pittsburgh Panthers. Currently, Wagner’s tournament record sits at 1-1, thanks to their 71-68 win over Howard on Tuesday.

Odds for UNC vs. Wagner

According to FanDuel, the Tar Heels are huge favorites to advance to the Round of 32, being favored at -24.5 points in Thursday’s game. As far as the money line for each team, Wagner sits at +3000, while North Carolina is at -10,000. As FanDuel sees it, UNC should win and win comfortably.

The current point total for this opening-round NCAA Tournament matchup has been placed at 133.5. While North Carolina has a top-30 offense this year, experts see this contest being a lower-scoring affair.

Final score predictions for Tar Heels vs. Seahawks

BPI Predicted winner: North Carolina

BPI Predicted point differential: 27.4

BPI Win probability (for UNC): 98.9%

BPI Matchup Quality: 55.6

ESPN’s BPI is a model designed to provide a statistical comparison between two teams and predict future success. It agrees with Vegas about what to expect from this game. As far as this matchup is concerned, the sports power’s BPI projects a point differential of 27.4 points in favor of North Carolina while also calculating an overwhelming 98.9 percent chance of victory for the Tar Heels.

BPI also gives this quarterfinal matchup a quality score of 55.6, which is the lowest quality score for the slate of action on Thursday.

KenPom Predicted final score: North Carolina 76, Wagner 54
KenPom Win probability (for UNC): 98 percent

KenPom is another predictive system for college basketball. It’s designed to show how strong a team is at a given time without taking factors like injuries into account. In this opening round throwdown, KenPom agrees with ESPN’s BPI and Vegas, projecting the Tar Heels to advance to the Round of 32 in the NCAA tournament.

How to watch North Carolina vs. Wagner

Time: 1:45 p.m. CT
Channel: CBS, Streaming on Prime Video
Location: Charlotte, NC

You can watch the tournament live on Prime Video, add on your favorite channels and watch at home or on your phone and laptop at work!

North Carolina and Wagner will tip off at 1:45 p.m. CT. The game will take place at the Spectrum Center in Charlotte, NC.

Fans who are unable to make the trip to North Carolina or can’t find tickets for the game can catch all the action live courtesy of Amazon Prime Video.