Yale vs. San Diego State odds: Win probability, final score prediction in NCAA Tournament

Sunday’s slate of NCAA Tournament games will feature one of the more intriguing matchups of the Round of 32. No. 13 seed Yale, fresh off an upset win over Auburn, will take on No. 5 seed San Diego State with a spot in the Sweet Sixteen on the line.

For the Aztecs, this isn’t unfamiliar territory. They were in this spot last year as part of a run to the Final Four. For Yale, though, it’s just the program’s second-ever Round of 32 appearance after previously advancing in 2016.

The oddsmakers and projections are in for the matchup, with SDSU holding a slight advantage.

Odds for Yale vs. San Diego State

San Diego State is a 5.5-point favorite over Yale in the Round of 32, according to FanDuel. The over-under is set at 128.5.

Both teams put up solid showings on offense in their opening games – Yale scored 78 points against Auburn and San Diego State dropped 69 points vs. UAB. However, SDSU has one of the top defenses in the country, meaning it might not be easy for Yale to find a rhythm.

Final score predictions for Yale vs. San Diego State

KenPom predicted final score: San Diego State 69, Yale 63
KenPom Win probability (for San Diego State): 70%

Like FanDuel, KenPom also gives the San Diego State the edge in the Round of 32. The Aztecs have a 70% chance of pulling off a victory over Yale, with a predicted final score of 69-63.

San Diego State enters the weekend No. 20 in the overall KenPom rankings, along with the 10th-most efficient defense. As for Yale, the Bulldogs rank in the top 80, checking in at No. 79 in the overall rankings.

How to watch Yale vs. San Diego State

Time: March 24, TBD
Channel: TBA, Prime Video (streaming)
Location: Spokane, Washington

Yale found itself down 10 points in the second half against Auburn, but became one of the stories of the tournament with its comeback. The Bulldogs rallied all the way back and stunned the Tigers, led by 28 points from John Poulakidas, to advance to the second round of the NCAA Tournament.

You can watch the tournament live on Prime Video, add on your favorite channels and watch at home or on your phone and laptop at work!

San Diego State also had an interesting game – but on the other end of a blown lead. The Aztecs had a 12-point advantage, but UAB ended up jumping out in front at one point before SDSU rallied for the 69-65 win.