Can Texas Tech, Oregon still host a regional?

In recent weeks, as college softball bracketology has come out, Texas Tech and Oregon haven’t been projected as regional hosts. That can be confusing for fans who see rankings that have the Red Raiders and Ducks as consensus Top-15 teams. The issue is that the dynamics between how regional hosts are decided are vastly different than weekly rankings.

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How does the Softball Selection Committee determine regional hosts?

Softball bracketology is a projection of what the softball selection committee will do based on the history of their previous choices. With that said, the biggest factor in a team hosting a regional is its RPI. The NCAA releases its nitty-gritty, which shows the RPI value and what it is based on. In the last five NCAA tournaments, a team has not hosted a regional with an adjusted RPI worse than 18. As of Wednesday morning, Texas Tech stands at 22 and Oregon at 20, a primary factor as to why the two teams aren’t projected to host.

Obviously, there are 16 regional hosts, meaning that not every team with an RPI of 18 or better can host. What other parts of the resume does the committee value when picking and seeding hosts? Based on what we know, here are a handful:

• Quad One wins (RPI 1-25)
• Quad Four loss (RPI 101+)
• Wins against RPI 1-10
• Strength of Schedule
• Non-Conference Strength of Schedule

When looking for those metrics, it is best to go straight to the NCAA, as other websites tend to have the wrong quadrants for softball, using 1-50 in the RPI, which is not correct for college softball.

The natural eye-test of teams is also factored in, more in certain years than others. There is no perfect formula to these projections as each year the committee tends to value one piece differently than the year prior. However, a team’s winning percentage and where a team finishes in their conference has not mattered to the committee. Depending on the year, how a team finishes a season has been accounted for, usually more positively. But the committee did note that LSU’s sluggish end to the season last year was why they didn’t get a Top-8 seed to host Super Regionals. And – I can not stress this enough – head-to-head matchups have never been included in the committee’s decision-making process, at least to this point. That is the core that college softball fans should know about what it takes to host.

Texas Tech’s path to hosting a regional

How can Texas Tech host a regional? The biggest reason why the Red Raiders’ RPI isn’t higher is a lack of wins against quad one & two. Texas Tech is 4-7 against quad one teams and 4-1 versus quad two teams (RPI 26-50). Their strength of schedule stands at 59, which is much lower than most of the other projected hosts.

However, all this can change rather quickly. Texas Tech’s poor SOS isn’t its own doing as the Red Raiders have a non-conference SOS of 27 playing the likes of Texas A&M, Texas, South Carolina, Mississippi State and Nebraska. However, the SOS will get better because of Texas Tech’s remaining schedule.

After Texas Tech opened Big 12 play against Oklahoma State, its schedule has been pretty weak. Although the Red Raiders start their backloaded conference slate by heading to Tucson for their three-game set against Arizona. Texas Tech has to win this series to host, as winning would give them at least two more quad-one wins. It’d also basically guarantee that Texas Tech wins the Big 12 regular season title, which has mattered to the selection committee.

Texas Tech still has series against Arizona State (37 RPI) and BYU (44), giving the Red Raiders a chance to add up to six quad two wins. Plus, a non-conference game against North Texas (45), which also includes bonus RPI points for a non-conference win.

RPI is also fluid, meaning Texas Tech can add quad one & two wins by hoping the teams they’ve already beaten continue to rise. Nebraska sits at 26 in the RPI, which could be another quad-one win. While the Red Raiders’ four wins over Iowa (54) and Baylor (59) could change as well.

Ultimately, if Texas Tech wins the series at Arizona this weekend, I truly believe they’ll end up hosting when all is said and done.

Oregon’s path to hosting a regional

Oregon’s path to hosting a college softball regional appears to be more cloudy. And without a series win against UCLA this upcoming weekend, it probably doesn’t.

The Ducks currently only have three quad-one wins, but all three, two against Florida State and one against Tennessee, are within the Top-10 RPI. They can add up to three more in the series against UCLA this weekend, and that would help a lot.

Oregon still has Indiana on the schedule, which would add to Top-50 wins if the Hooisers stay in quad two but they could move to quad three. The series against Michigan State won’t help. Oregon needs Washington to pop back into the Top-25 RPI to gain two more wins there. The Ducks would need to make a run against the better teams of the conference in the Big Ten Tournament.

Oregon’s move to the Big Ten is what is hurting the Ducks. The biggest difference is that UCLA played a very hard non-conference slate to counteract the Big Ten schedule, while Oregon’s wasn’t as difficult. The Ducks having an SOS and a non-conference SOS above 100 will really hurt them come Selection Sunday.

Unfortunately, Oregon’s chance to host seems low unless the Ducks sweep UCLA. This brings up the question of why a team that is one of the best 16 teams doesn’t host.

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