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Softball America Bracketology: 2024 Selection Sunday

Screenshot 2024-07-31 at 7.46.34 PMby:Brady Vernon•05/12/24•

BradyVernon

Bracketology

Selection Sunday is here and here is our final Field of 64 Projection. The selection show can be seen on ESPN2 at 7 p.m. ET.

Let’s jump into the basics before unveiling the bracket. The bracket is made of 16 regionals with each host being determined by the selection committee based on certain metrics such as strength of schedule and record versus the best teams according to the RPI.

The Field of 64 is divided into the 32 conference winners who earn the automatic bid, these are determined by the conference tournaments rather than the Big West and WCC that award the regular season champion. The 32 at-large bids are determined by the same criteria used for the hosts.

Reminder these projections are based on what we think the selection committee will do, not how we personally would seed the teams. 

* = denotes automatic qualifier

Field of 64: Selection Sunday
AUSTIN COLLEGE STATION
1. Texas (1) 1. Texas A&M (16)
4. Cleveland State* 4. Saint Francis (PA)*
2. Arizona 2. Texas State*
3. Boston U.* 3. Texas Tech
NORMAN LAFAYETTE
1. Oklahoma* (2) 1. Louisiana (15)
4. Northern Colorado* 4. Princeton*
2. Mississippi State 2. Baylor
3. Utah 3. Ole Miss
GAINESVILLE TALLAHASSEE
1. Florida* (3) 1. Florida State (14)
4. Siena* 4. Chattanooga*
2. UCF 2. Auburn
3. FGCU* 3. FAU
KNOXVILLE TUSCALOOSA
1. Tennessee (4) 1. Alabama (13)
4. Dayton* 4. USC Upstate*
2. Virginia 2. Clemson
3. Miami (OH)* 3. South Alabama
DURHAM FAYETTEVILLE
1. Duke* (5) 1. Arkansas (12)
4. Morgan State* 4. SEMO*
2. South Carolina 2. California
3. Liberty* 3. Villanova*
BATON ROUGE STILLWATER
1. LSU (6) 1. Oklahoma State (11)
4. Jackson State* 4. UAlbany*
2. Washington 2. Oregon
3. Southeastern* 3. Penn State
LOS ANGELES ATHENS
1. UCLA* (7) 1. Georgia (10)
4. Grand Canyon* 4. UNC Wilmington*
2. Kentucky 2. Charlotte*
3. San Diego State* 3. Michgan*
COLUMBIA STANFORD
1. Missouri (8) 1. Stanford (9)
4. Omaha* 4. Saint Mary’s (CA)*
2. Northwestern 2. Virginia Tech
3. Southern Illinois* 3. Cal State Fullerton*

Hosts

1. Texas
2. Oklahoma
3. Florida
4. Tennessee
5. Duke
6. LSU
7. UCLA
8. Missouri
9. Stanford
10. Georgia
11. Oklahoma State
12. Arkansas
13. Alabama
14. Florida State
15. Louisiana
16. Texas A&M

The Field of 64

  • SEC – 13
  • Pac-12 – 7
  • Big 12 – 6
  • ACC – 5
  • Big Ten – 3
  • Sun Belt – 3
  • American – 2
  • All other conferences – 1

The Bubble

Last Four In: Texas Tech, Florida Atlantic, Ole Miss, Penn State

First Four Out: Indiana, BYU, Nebraska, Kansas

Team W-L Adj. RPI SOS NC SOS RPI 1-25 RPI 26-50 RPI 51-100 vs TOP 100
Texas Tech 29-21 40 25 74 3-15 5-4 8-1 16-20
Florida Atlantic 41-14 41 99 121 2-3 2-4 16-7 20-14
Penn State 34-18 38 45 18 1-5 7-5 6-5 14-15
Ole Miss 31-25 45 29 87 7-17 2-4 7-2 16-23
Indiana 40-18 43 81 127 0-5 7-9 9-3 16-17
BYU 31-23 47 40 172 3-12 5-6 8-2 16-20
Nebraska 30-23 46 36 23 0-4 4-11 11-6 15-21
Kansas 28-25-1 49 33 80 4-11 2-11 11-1-2001 17-23-1

The Breakdown

  • It was incredibly tough to determine the Top-Eights seeds. There is a case to be made for 11 teams.
  • Duke and UCLA earn potential Super Regional hosts after winning the ACC and Pac-12 regular season title and conference tournament. If the Blue Devils don’t earn a Top-Eight seed it’ll be due to zero wins versus the Top-10 RPI teams.
  • Florida slots in at the third spot after winning the SEC Tournament (every SEC tournament champ has been seeded five or higher the past five NCAA Tournaments). The Gators also have the most Top-10 (eight) and Top-25 (17) RPI wins. Missouri also has a stellar resume despite falling in the title game to Florida.
  • Stanford, Georgia and Oklahoma don’t make the cut but could easily receive a Top-Eight spot.
  • Texas State would be considered as the ‘first team out’ of the hosting bubble after winning the Sun Belt Tournament. The Bobcats can easily prove themselves if they end up busing to Texas A&M as the two-seed in that regional.
  • In terms of the bubble, Florida Atlantic earns an at-large bid thanks to 20 wins against the Top-100 RPI teams.
  • Ole Miss makes the field because the Big Ten getting four teams into the tournament seems unlikely. Based on last season, Notre Dame made the ‘last four in’ by having more quality wins and Ole Miss’ wins are far better than the Irish’s from last season.
  • The committee in this projection decided between Penn State and Indiana. We put the Hoosiers outside the Field of 64 despite the run to the Big Ten Tournament championship game and have two more wins against the Top-100 teams than the Nittany Lions. Penn State has a better RPI (Typically an RPI under 40 earns an at-large bid), the best win (Arkansas) and had a much tougher non-conference strength of schedule.

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