Alabama's chances of playing in SEC Championship Game after Week 12

Only two weeks remain in the 2024 regular season, and while the SEC Championship Game matchup is still not set, No. 10 Alabama is in a favorable spot to be one of the participants.

With Georgia defeating Tennessee, 31-17, on Saturday, the Volunteers no longer have a clear path to the conference title game. Had Tennessee won in Athens, the Vols would have just needed to win out to likely face the winner of Texas-Texas A&M in Week 14. But Tennessee is the latest team to have two league losses, joining Alabama, Georgia and Ole Miss. 

Florida’s win over LSU eliminated the Tigers from that group, as well, and as the page turns to Week 13, Alabama is seemingly in the best position to face the Texas-Texas A&M winner.

That is if Texas defeats Kentucky at home and Texas A&M defeats Auburn on the road a week from now ahead of their highly-anticipated meeting to conclude the regular season. Both teams are currently 5-1 in SEC play, and if they move to 6-1, the winner will clinch a spot in the SEC Championship Game, while the loser joins the still-crowded, two-loss club.

If Alabama wins its remaining games against Oklahoma and Auburn, it will be among the teams tied for second place. The group will at least include Georgia, which is 6-2. It could also include Tennessee, Ole Miss and Texas or Texas A&M. Because head-to-head doesn’t apply to all, the tiebreaker to decide it would be the conference opponents’ win percentage. 

mred’s 2024 SEC FB Standings Tiebreaker favors Alabama because of UA’s league record. If the Crimson Tide wins out and Missouri wins at least one of its games against Mississippi State and Arkansas, then Alabama would compete for an SEC title on Saturday, Dec. 7. But two Missouri losses would drop UA’s schedule strength, sending Georgia to Atlanta.

That is, however, if Texas wins the SEC Championship Game. If the Longhorns lose, it doesn’t matter if Missouri loses both of its next two games – Alabama would face Texas A&M in Atlanta. There’s also a scenario where the Tide could face Georgia in the conference title game if both Texas and Texas A&M lose at least a game each over the next two weeks.

Right now, there are multiple paths for Alabama to play for an SEC championship.

Whoever wins the SEC Championship Game will receive an automatic bid in the new 12-team College Football Playoff and a first-round bye as a top-four seed. The winner of the SEC title game would play in the quarterfinals in the Sugar Bowl on Wednesday, Jan. 1, 2025, per Brett McMurphy. The semifinals will be played at the Cotton and Orange Bowls.

The team that loses the SEC Championship Game will have to wait to learn its postseason fate. The CFP selection committee will reveal the at-large teams on Sunday, Dec. 8, on ESPN.

In October, an SEC title game appearance seemed unlikely for Alabama after losing games at Vanderbilt and Tennessee. But the Tide has won three straight games, including a must-win matchup with LSU, while others around the league fall short. Now, Alabama is not only back in the hunt for a berth in Atlanta, but it is in a strong position with two weeks left.

What a difference a month makes.

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