Alabama's updated projections in the 2025 NCAA Tournament

The regular season is now over, with Alabama finishing 24-7 on the year with a 13-5 record in SEC play. The Crimson Tide earned the 3-seed in this week’s SEC Tournament, receiving a double-bye to the quarterfinal round on Friday.

The tournament in Nashville will be the final opportunity to add to its NCAA Tournament resume, with the full bracket being revealed on Sunday evening. So ahead of this week’s conference tournament, let’s look at where Alabama stands in current projections:

Joe Lunardi, ESPN

Seed: 2
Region: Midwest (Indianapolis)
First weekend site: Lexington
Potential path to Final Four: 15-seed Wofford, 7-seed Louisville, 3-seed St. John’s, 1-seed Houston

Check out Lunardi’s full bracket here.

Jerry Palm, CBS Sports

Seed: 2
Region: East (Newark)
First weekend site: Lexington
Potential path to Final Four: 15-seed Robert Morris, 7-seed BYU, 3-seed St. John’s, 1-seed Duke

Check out Palm’s full bracket here.

James Fletcher III, On3 Sports

Seed: 2
Region: Midwest (Indianapolis)
First weekend site: Lexington
Potential path to Final Four: 15-seed Towson, 7-seed Memphis, 3-seed Texas A&M, 1-seed Houston

Check out Fletcher’s full bracket here.

Breakdown

Alabama did itself a huge favor on Saturday picking up a road win over then-No. 1 Auburn, which seems to have done enough to put itself on the top of the 2-line in the majority of bracket projections.

The Tide finished the regular season with a fantastic resume, holding an 11-7 record in Quad 1 games and a No. 2 ranking in Wins Above Bubble. It’s also ranked No. 6 in the NET and rated No. 6 in KenPom.

Being at the top of the 2-line is valuable, especially when it comes to first weekend locations. Because of where the current projected 1-seeds (Auburn, Duke, Houston, Florida) are located, there is still a spot open in Lexington for the first weekend, the closest site to Alabama. Being the top 2-seed allows the Tide to get that favorable location, rather than Cleveland or Wichita, which would be the next likely options.

There have been questions about whether or not an SEC Tournament run can push Alabama to the final 1-seed, and I’m not sure if that’s going to happen. Historically, the selection committee doesn’t overly weigh conference tournament results. But to play devil’s advocate, the strength of this year’s SEC could allow for some movement with some true resume-boosting wins that could take place in Nashville.

One scenario to watch could be the potential semifinal matchup between Alabama and Florida. An Alabama win in that game could push the Tide over the Gators for the final 1-seed, but it’s not at all a guarantee. Alabama has a great resume, but the thing separating it from the current 1-seeds is having seven losses, while they all have no less than four.

Alabama is the top 2-seed on Bracket Matrix with an average seed of 1.98. All but eight of the 90 brackets on the site have the Tide as a 2-seed which is to be expected. There’s no possible way at this point that they could drop to the 3-line, and a very outside chance at a 1-seed.

It’s looking like a 2-seed at the moment, which would be the third time in five years that Nate Oats has led an Alabama team to a top-2 seed in the Big Dance. That’s an unbelievable accomplishment.

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