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ESPN FPI: Alabama's chances of making College Football Playoff, winning national championship

1918632_10206777287683070_1367905321192383146_nby:Charlie Potter•06/03/25•

Charlie_Potter

Alabama HC Kalen DeBoer
Kalen DeBoer (Will McLelland / USA TODAY Sports)

Alabama enters the 2025 college football season with a 10.8% chance to win the national title.

ESPN released its updated Football Power Index on Tuesday, June 3, and the Crimson Tide (24.2) was No. 3 behind only top-ranked Texas (28.5) and No. 2 Georgia (26.6). Alabama was just ahead of reigning national champion Ohio State (23.8) and Penn State (21.5).

The Tide was tied with Ohio State for the third-best chances to hoist the national championship trophy at the end of the 2025 season. Texas had the best odds at 24.1%. Alabama was one of four teams with a 20% or better chance to make the College Football Playoff national title game at 20.2%. Its chances of making the 12-team playoff field sit at 66.2%.

Alabama has a 17.2% chance of winning the SEC this fall, according to ESPN’s FPI. Texas is the early favorite to win the conference at 34.1%, while Georgia’s chances sit at 26.9%.

The Crimson Tide’s projected win total is 9.6, per ESPN, and the odds of finishing the upcoming campaign undefeated are 3.9%. But those are the 10th-best odds among FBS teams.

According to ESPN, “the FPI is a predictive rating system that estimates each FBS team’s strength (in points per game relative to the national average) on offense, defense and special teams, making adjustments for starters lost, recruiting talent and other personnel changes. Those numbers are then plugged into the schedule, and everything is simulated 20,000 times to track each team’s odds of winning its conference, making the playoff and advancing through to the national title.”

CHANCES OF MAKING 12-TEAM PLAYOFF

1. Texas – 83.9%
2. Georgia – 78.6%
3. Ohio State – 70.6%
4. Alabama – 66.2%
5. Penn State – 63.8%
6. Oregon – 57.5%
7. Clemson – 47.3%
8. Miami – 46.3%
9. Notre Dame – 45.6%
10. Tennessee – 38.5%

CHANCES OF WINNING NATIONAL TITLE

1. Texas – 24.1%
2. Georgia – 17.9%
3. Alabama – 10.8%
3. Ohio State – 10.8%
5. Penn State – 7.0%
6. Oregon – 4.3%
7. Clemson – 2.8%
8. Notre Dame – 2.7%
8. Miami – 2.7%
8. Texas A&M – 2.7%

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