Five predictions for the Iron Bowl

Five predictions for No. 8 Alabama in advance of its Iron Bowl date with the Auburn Tigers at Jordan-Hare Stadium (Saturday, 2:30 p.m. CT/CBS).

Auburn will not have a pair of 100-yard rushers

Running back Jarquez Hunter (134) and quarterback Robby Ashford (121) combined to rush for 255 of the Tigers’ 318 yards in last year’s Iron Bowl. 

Twelve months later, with Michigan State transfer Peyton Thorne serving as Auburn’s primary option behind center, Ashford has been relegated to reserve status. While he hasn’t taken a snap in two of the last three games, Ashford seeing the field on offense this week wouldn’t come as a surprise. 

As for Hunter, he posted three straight 100-yard games before New Mexico State put an end to the run in a 31-10 loss to the Aggies last Saturday. Prior to his most recent performance, Hunter had hit the century mark in five straight games in the month of November (dating back to last season).

Meanwhile, the Alabama defense gave up its first 100-yard game to an opposing running back this season last week. In rushing for 104 yards in a 66-10 loss to the Crimson Tide, Chattanooga’s Gino Appleberry did something Jonathon Brooks, Jaylen Wright, Ray Davis and Quinshon Judkins couldn’t.

Much of Appleberry’s success came on outside zone runs. Given the production AU got on the perimeter in Tuscaloosa in 2022, expect a similar approach from the outset of Saturday’s game. 

Alabama will not go without a sack in back-to-back contests

The UTC game marked the first sack shutout for UA since its lone loss of the season, a Week 2 setback to Texas. 

The Mocs weren’t all that interested in working full field reads, so time wasn’t exactly on the side of the Crimson Tide pass rush.  When Chattanooga quarterback Luke Schomburg did hold on to the ball, he took a big shot from outside linebacker Chris Braswell and was pressured by Quandarrius Robinson.

In SEC play, Alabama has recorded three or more sacks in six of its seven league games to date. As for Thorne, he was dropped four times by the NMSU defense last week. If it limits the effectiveness of Hunter and the run game on early downs, UA will achieve a similar total this week.  

The Crimson Tide will run for no fewer than two scores

Alabama has piled up 15 rushing touchdowns in its last three games. Of that total, 11 have come in the red zone, with six different players contributing to the output.

So, if you’re wondering how an offense ends 18 consecutive red zone trips in the end zone, those numbers would be a good place to start.

Auburn has given up just one rushing score in its last four games. The Tigers’ three-game win streak prior to last Saturday saw them keep Mississippi State, Vanderbilt and Arkansas out of the end zone on the ground. It’s worth noting that the trio rank at the bottom of the SEC in rushing touchdowns.

Auburn will have fewer than three completions of 20 yards or more

Explosive through the air, the Tigers are not. 

Auburn’s 12 pass plays of 20 yards or more in conference play rank last in the league in that department. An AU receiver doesn’t show up among SEC leaders in receiving until the 34th spot, where tight end Rivaldo Fairweather checks in at 31.7 yards per game. 

If the Tigers are to get an explosive from a wide receiver this week, Ja’Varrius Johnson would be a good bet to deliver. He’s needed just 10 catches to produce 220 yards and two scores in his last four games. Thorne has picked it up of late, too, averaging more than 7.2 yards per pass attempt in four of his last five starts. 

After giving up six 20-or-mores to LSU, the Alabama defense surrendered four in games against Kentucky (three) and Chattanooga (one). UA’s ability to play man to man against the Tigers’ wide receivers should prove beneficial in a multitude of ways, including run defense and when it brings numbers in the pass rush. 

Alabama will win the game by a score of 38-16

For all the talk about voodoo, Auburn’s success against Alabama at Jordan-Hare Stadium has typically involved the Tigers holding a tangible edge in at least one critical matchup. Given the decisive advantage UA currently holds in roster quality, it’s difficult to find an area that might be able to carry AU to the upset this time around. 

With that, Alabama should expect some gadgetry and trickery from Hugh Freeze in his Iron Bowl debut. Even after the New Mexico State No Show last week, he’s still very much in the honeymoon stage of his tenure, so why not dial up an early onside kick, flea flicker and/or fake punt? 

Pulling off something along those lines would go a long way in keeping the home crowd energized. Otherwise, in a game that is played straight up, the Crimson Tide will have more to say about Saturday’s environs than the Tigers. Perhaps a lot more.

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