Five predictions for the SEC Championship Game

Five predictions for the eighth-ranked Alabama Crimson Tide in its meeting with No. 1 Georgia in the 2023 SEC Championship Game (Saturday, 3 p.m. CT, CBS).

No fewer than six different receivers for each team will catch a pass

While Jermaine Burton and Brock Bowers lead their teams in receptions, respectively, UA and UGA haven’t been overly dependent on a primary guy in the passing game. 

The concern for the Bulldogs this week centers on the availability of Bowers and wide receiver Ladd McConkey. More so than any of the other options quarterback Carson Beck has to work with, the duo have the ability to turn easy touches into explosive plays. 

Their flowers aside, in connecting with five other receivers no fewer than 20 times this season, Beck has obviously developed a comfort level with the rest of the rotation. On third down Saturday, Missouri transfer Dominic Lovett is a good bet to be one of those guys. 

For Alabama, Burton and Isaiah Bond have separated from the rest of the pass catching pack in Tuscaloosa. That was evident in the Crimson Tide’s 27-24 win over Auburn last week, when the duo combined to catch nine passes for 182 yards and two touchdowns. While they weren’t targeted frequently in the Iron Bowl, Amari Niblack, Malik Benson and Jase McClellan produced first downs on each of the four receptions the trio produced.

In UGA’s Dillon Bell and UA’s Kendrick Law, there are a couple of X factors to consider here, too. Wide receivers by trade, both are used in ways that speak more to utility roles. 

Safeties/sub defensive backs for UA and UGA will post interceptions

Of the 12 interceptions recorded by the Georgia defense this season, eight have come from from starting safeties/stars Tykee Smith (four), Javon Bullard (two) and Malaki Starks (two). First-team corners Kamari Lassiter and Daylen Everette, who flip between the boundary and field, have yet to pick off a pass in 2023.

In working at both corner and star this season, Alabama’s Terrion Arnold has intercepted an SEC-best five passes. With Alabama expected to be in nickel defense for much of Saturday’s game, Arnold is a good bet to spend much of the contest on the outside. In that case, Malachi Moore and Caleb Downs would be the guys to watch in the middle of the field, an area quarterbacks Beck and Jalen Milroe haven’t been afraid to work. 

By the way, this isn’t to say corners won’t be important Saturday. For Arnold and Kool-Aid McKinstry, they’ll get tested early via Georgia’s quick passing game and perimeter work. For Lassiter and Everette, they — along with their aforementioned mates at safety and star — can expect a combination of perimeter touches for Law and Bond along with some deep over and post routes to the latter.

If Alabama has a 100-yard rusher, it will be Milroe

In his first seven starts of the season, Milroe rushed for 142 yards (sacks obviously had something to do with his output). In his last three starts against SEC opponents, he has rushed for 297 yards, including 100-yard performances in wins over LSU and Auburn. During that same stretch, neither McClellan or Roydell Williams surpassed 66 rushing yards.

With McClellan hobbled, it might be even more on Milroe to fill in gaps where UA’s rushing production is concerned. There aren’t likely to be many explosive runs by backs for either team Saturday, so that’s another area where Milroe might make a big difference in the game.   

With that, how the UGA defensive staff plans to use inside linebackers Smael Mondon and CJ Allen where Milroe is concerned will be one of the fascinating aspects of this matchup. Spy, rush or play coverage? Even with his continued growth as a passer, Milroe should still expect more of the first two.

Red zone touchdowns will go a long way in determining the winner

Good kickers for both of these teams and the two defenses involved will try to keep each busy when red zone opportunities roll around. Between them, Will Reichard (18 of 21) and Peyton Woodring (20 of 23) have connected on 38 of their 44 field goal attempts this season. Neither has missed an extra point.

One too many field goals from inside the Auburn 20 a week ago nearly proved fatal for the Crimson Tide. Meanwhile, a red zone stop from its defense in the fourth quarter put UA in position to win with a touchdown.

In SEC play, these teams produced a similar touchdown conversion rate from the red zone, with Georgia checking in at percent 65.2 and Alabama at 63.3. Defensively, UA gave up touchdowns on 53.9 percent of the trips league opponents made inside its 20. The number jumped to 63.2 percent for UGA.

We can get granular on play design and calls when the ball reaches this part of the field. Ultimately, though, how well big, fast and strong human beings block and tackle when real estate gets tight tells the tale.

Alabama will win the game by a score of 27-23

Rejoice, Georgia fans. I got the 2021 SEC Championship Game and 2022 College Football Playoff National Championship Game wrong, so your Bulldogs are probably as safe as kittens in this one. 

When predicting the latter, I took the approach of never again picking against a Nick Saban-coached UA team when UGA was involved. That game, of course, was contested in Indianapolis. 

Two years later, I’m sticking with a couple of things here. First, I picked Alabama to go 11-1 and win the SEC back in July. While it may have taken a few years off Saban’s coaching career to get here, Alabama checked the first box. 

Also, Saban’s Crimson Tide, winners in each of its last eight appearances in the league title contest, has yet to drop a game to Georgia contested in either Athens or Atlanta. There’s a first time for everything; even for a team coached by the best to ever do it.

Maybe this is it. Or, perhaps, for just the second time in their last 31 games, Georgia will taste defeat in a place that has felt like anything but home to the Bulldogs in this series.  

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