Skip to main content
alabama logo

March Bracketology: Where Alabama projects in the 2025 NCAA Tournament

63571867_t466o7i5ncby:Blake Byler•about 9 hours•

blakebyler45

MoDioubateMSU
Alabama forward Mo Dioubate vs. Mississippi State (courtesy UA Athletics)

The calendar has turned to March, which means the NCAA Tournament is drawing ever-closer. Alabama currently sits at No. 7 in the AP Poll, holding a 23-6 record overall and a 12-4 record in the SEC, which has been the best conference in college basketball this season.

The Crimson Tide has an excellent resume, boasting a KenPom ranking of No. 6, a NET ranking of No. 6, and a 10-6 record in Quad 1. Alabama ranks No. 2 in BartTorvik‘s “wins above bubble” metric, which measures  how many more wins a team has compared to what a bubble team would be expected to have against the same schedule

Let’s take a look at where some of the nation’s bracketologists project Alabama in the Big Dance:

Joe Lunardi, ESPN

Seed: 2
Region: Midwest (Indianapolis)
Top four seeds in region: 1-seed Houston, 2-seed Alabama, 3-seed Kentucky, 4-seed Purdue

Lunardi has not fully updated his bracket projection, but check out his current seed list here.

Jerry Palm, CBS Sports

Seed: 2
Region: East (Newark)
First Weekend Site: Raleigh
Potential path to Final Four: 15-seed South Alabama, 7-seed Maryland, 3-seed Purdue, 1-seed Duke

Check out Palm’s bracket here.

James Fletcher III, On3 Sports

Seed: 2
Region: Midwest (Indianapolis)
First Weekend Site: Lexington
Potential path to Final Four: 15-seed Towson, 7-seed Gonzaga, 3-seed Iowa State, 1-seed Houston

Check out Fletcher’s bracket here.

Breakdown

Alabama’s losses in recent weeks, particularly the loss on Saturday to Tennessee, have led to the Crimson Tide’s once-firm hold on a 1-seed to become much more of a question. It’s not as definitive as you might think, though. Because of how good Alabama’s resume is, there are many bracketologists who are willing to overlook the fact that the Tide has more losses than some of the other teams fighting for that last 1-seed, namely Tennessee and Florida.

Though all three above bracketologists have Alabama as a 2-seed, that’s not the consensus. Alabama has an average seed of 1.45 on Bracket Matrix, which actually averages it out as the fourth 1-seed on the list. As of now, 50 of the 90 brackets on Bracket Matrix have Alabama as a 1-seed.

Here’s a really good breakdown of the three SEC teams (Alabama, Tennessee, Florida) vying for that last 1-seed done by one of my favorite bracketologists on Twitter/X:

Basically, it’s really close.

For Alabama, this week will likely decide what its seed is. I believe one win this week over either Florida or Auburn plus one win in the SEC Tournament should be enough to get a 1-seed. Anything worse than that, and it’s probably a 2-seed. I don’t see any way Alabama could fall to a 3, even if it lost every game left on the schedule.

As far as locations, there’s really no telling how it will shake out. Being the 1-seed in the Midwest Region is obviously the most preferable, but that would require jumping Houston for No. 3 overall, which will be difficult given the schedule. The fourth 1-seed will get the West Region, playing the second weekend in San Francisco.

If a 2-seed is the draw, it’s wide open. It would most likely to be either Duke’s East Region or Houston’s Midwest Region if Alabama ended up as a 2-seed, since I’d bet the committee would try to avoid putting conference foes as the 1- and 2-seeds in the same region, and the other 1-seeds in this scenario would be Auburn and Tennessee/Florida.

First weekend sites are also tricky. I’d bet it’s one of Lexington or Raleigh, with a smaller chance of being Cleveland as a third option. Too many variables to predict in that area of things.

Long story short, Alabama is still in a good spot. It’s got plenty to play for, and has a very good chance still of earning itself a good draw as it chases a second consecutive Final Four.

Not a member, Alabama fans? Join BOL today!

Have you subscribed to BamaOnLine.com yet? You can sign up for ONE MONTH of premium access to our Alabama coverage for just $11.99! Be able to read all of BOL’s premium articles and nuggets covering Alabama sports and recruiting and also join thousands of other Crimson Tide fans around the globe on the BOL Round Table message board! CLICK HERE!

You may also like