Playoff Projections: Alabama on outside looking in after loss to Oklahoma

Alabama had a clear path to Atlanta on Saturday afternoon. Win out and play for an SEC title, then wait to learn when and where it would play in the 12-team College Football Playoff.

But the No. 7 Crimson Tide fell flat against an unranked Oklahoma team, losing on the road in Norman, 24-3. Alabama’s postseason hopes all but ended with the team’s third loss of the 2024 season, and reaching the playoff field is very unlikely as things currently stand.

More chaos can happen, as we’ve seen throughout the college football season, but as the dust settles on Week 13, Alabama (8-3, 4-3 SEC) appears to be on the outside looking in and on its way to a non-playoff bowl game in the first year of Kalen DeBoer’s tenure at UA.

ESPN’s Heather Dinich ranks the Tide at No. 12 in her latest playoff projections, but Alabama would be the first team out. She has Boise State earning a first-round bye, which means the Big 12 champion would leap-frog UA for an at-large bid. CBS Sports’ Jerry Palm also has the Tide as his first team out and projects Alabama to face Illinois in the Citrus Bowl.

The Crimson Tide last played in the Citrus Bowl in 2019 against Michigan after losing a pair of regular-season games. Alabama won that matchup with the Wolverines, 35-16, in Orlando.

Less than 24 hours after its worst loss of the year, Alabama looks to be left out of the College Football Playoff. But its hopes aren’t officially dead yet. ESPN’s Football Power Index still gives the Crimson Tide the 12th-best odds to play in the 12-team tournament. Again, that is ahead of the Big 12, whose champion would earn an automatic berth as an at-large.

ESPN Playoff Percentage Projections

Oregon – 99.8%
Ohio State – 99.5%
Penn State – 98.9%
Texas – 97.9%
Indiana – 97.7%
Georgia – 90.6%
Notre Dame – 90.1%
Miami – 79.6%
Tennessee – 76.3%
Boise State – 68.0%
SMU – 62.5%
Alabama – 37.4%
Iowa State – 27.6%
Arizona State – 25.9%
BYU – 25.5%
Tulane – 24.8%
Clemson – 23.8%
South Carolina – 23.1%

There’s also the threat of being jumped by either Clemson or South Carolina, who will face off next weekend. It might not happen this week, but what about after the Week 14 game? A few of the teams who will be ranked ahead of UA this week can also afford another loss.

To remain in the hunt, Alabama must take care of business next week against an unranked Auburn team that will be playing for bowl eligibility after upsetting Texas A&M. The good news for the Tide is that game will be played at home, where Alabama is 6-0 this year.

But the Crimson Tide has plenty to clean up after scoring just three points and producing 234 yards against Oklahoma. The Sooners rushed for more yards (265) than the Alabama offense mustered. The Tide also turned the ball over three times and had just one takeaway.

We will learn what the College Football Playoff selection committee thinks of Alabama when it unveils its latest rankings on Tuesday, Nov. 26 (6 p.m. on ESPN). To be included among the 12 teams isn’t fully off the table, but UA needs a weird season to get even weirder.

What a difference a week makes.

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