Why Alabama was ahead of Miami in penultimate playoff rankings

Alabama checked in at No. 11 in the penultimate College Football Playoff rankings, keeping the Crimson Tide’s postseason hopes alive ahead of conference championship weekend.

Alabama was the highest-ranked, 3-loss team and came in ahead of teams like Miami (No. 12), Ole Miss (No. 13) and South Carolina (No. 14). The Tide now just needs No. 8 SMU to win the ACC Championship Game, defeating No. 17 Clemson, to make the playoff field.

There was plenty of debate leading up to the rankings reveal on Tuesday night as to which of those four teams would be ranked the highest and seemingly in the field should the Mustangs defeat the Tigers on Saturday. In the next-to-last poll, that was the Crimson Tide.

CFP committee chair Warde Manuel explained to ESPN why Alabama was ahead of Miami. 

“Obviously, we think highly of both teams,” Manuel said. “One is at 11, one is at 12. But what it really came down to is Alabama is 3-1 against current top-25 teams, and Miami is 0-1. Alabama is 6-1 against teams above .500, and Miami is 4-2. Both have had some losses that weren’t what they wanted out of those games, but in the last three games, Miami has lost twice.

“So for us in evaluating their body of work, we felt that Alabama got the edge over Miami.”

Alabama, Miami, Ole Miss and South Carolina will be watching the conference title games this weekend, with the Tide hoping for an SMU victory. With no contests left on the schedule, could the way the quartet is currently ranked change between now and the final poll?

“Any team that is not playing right now, we don’t have a data point to rearrange where we have those teams ranked, and so that is set in terms of how we see them going into the final week of championship week,” Manuel said. “There’s nothing that’s going to change, Rece, for us to evaluate them any differently than we have now.

“Those teams who are not playing cannot be adjusted in terms of where they are compared to other teams that are not playing. But the championship teams, we will evaluate that data point to determine if there needs to be any movement based on how the performance of the game goes.”

Alabama (9-3, 5-3 SEC) will closely watch the ACC Championship Game. An SMU victory will almost assuredly give the Tide a playoff berth. But what if No. 17 Clemson upset the Mustangs? Could Alabama still get in over an SMU team that sits with an 11-1 record?

“That is something that we will decide in the room at the conclusion of those games when we evaluate what happens in the championship,” Manuel said on a conference call. “I can’t go into the future and tell you exactly how the outcome of that discussion will be. It depends on the outcome of the game and how it’s played and the results themselves.

“We’ll just have to wait and see how the committee is going to analyze that game and depending on the outcome, where things will go in terms of rankings and how people will move or will not move.”

Manuel was later asked again if SMU could drop below Alabama with a loss on Saturday.

“Potentially, yes,” Manuel said. “And they could move above teams, as well. Again, it just depends on the outcome of the game.”

The 12-team playoff field will be unveiled on Sunday, December 8, at 11 a.m. CT on ESPN.

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