Auburn football's remaining games ranked by win probability

AUBURN — Auburn hasn’t finished with a losing conference record in back-to-back seasons since 2008 and 2009.

Auburn finished 2-6 in SEC play in 2008, and followed that up by finishing 3-5 in SEC play in 2009. After seven games this season, the Tigers sit at 1-3 in league play one season after finishing 3-5 in Bryan Harsin’s first year.

That was the end of the Tommy Tuberville era and the beginning of the Gene Chizik era. That’s essentially what happens when the football program goes through turmoil to the caliber that’s happening right now.

Changes are made.

But for now, no coaching changes have been made following Auburn’s 3-4 start to the season, and 1-3 start in conference play. At this point, the main focus for these coaches and players is making a bowl game. Bowl games are a reward for the players more than anything else.

So, let’s talk about what the Tigers’ chances are of earning their 47th all-time bowl appearance.

Using ESPN’s Football Power Index’s win percentages, here is how the rest of the games on the schedule rank with thoughts on each contest.

Overall, the FPI gives Auburn a 33 percent chance to reach six wins and make a bowl game.

Western Kentucky (FPI 58.7% chance of winning)

The fact that Auburn’s percentage chance of winning this football game doesn’t even reach 60 percent is scary. Western Kentucky can score. They average 40 points per game, and their quarterback Austin Reed has thrown 21 touchdowns and is well past 2,000 yards passing on the season already. We may know more about Western Kentucky on Friday when they play UAB. The Hilltoppers only Power Five game so far was a 33-30 overtime loss to Indiana. If Auburn’s defense suffers lapses in this game, the pressure will mount on Auburn’s offense to be more prolific than they’re used to being this season.

Arkansas (FPI 55.4% chance of winning)

With K.J. Jefferson healthy and back in the starting lineup, Arkansas is an extremely physical, efficient and explosive offensive football team. Given Auburn’s struggles to stop the run, this game could look similar to the Ole Miss game, in that Auburn may need another offensive outburst to pull out the win. The good news is, Arkansas’ defense is giving up well over 450 yards per game, and while the offense is scoring 32 points per game, their defense is allowing 32 points per game. The bye week will give Auburn its best opportunity to scheme up a victory.

Texas A&M (FPI 45.1% chance of winning)

Texas A&M might be a more disappointing offensive team than Auburn among SEC teams this season. Like Auburn, the Aggies are averaging just 22 points per game as Haynes King has struggled, throwing five touchdowns and five picks this season. Last season, Auburn trailed in College Station 6-3 entering the fourth quarter, then allowed 14 fourth-quarter points to lose 20-3. This game could look similar. The Aggies’ defense is tough, so another relatively low-scoring game should be the expectation. What will Auburn’s mindset be if they’ve lost two straight after the bye week?

at Mississippi State (FPI 20.3% chance of winning)

This will be an extremely tough matchup for Auburn. Nobody will soon forget Mississippi State scoring 40(!) unanswered points against the Tigers last season inside Jordan-Hare Stadium. Auburn led 28-3 with six minutes until halftime, then found itself trailing 43-28 with five minutes remaining in the game. Will Rogers completed 44 of 55 passes for 415 yards and six touchdowns. One year later, Rogers leads the SEC in passing yards per game (330) and touchdowns (23) through eight weeks. Given Auburn’s offensive struggles this season, expecting them to score enough points to win this football game seems unrealistic.

at Alabama (FPI 4% chance of winning)

There’s not much analysis needed for this one. Alabama has one of the best offenses in the nation led by Bryce Young and Jahmyr Gibbs, the game is in Tuscaloosa, and Alabama will likely be in the College Football Playoff hunt. To be blunt, Auburn simply doesn’t have the offense to win this football game. It would be shocking for the Tigers to even be in striking distance come late third quarter. Alabama’s defense has been vulnerable, but it takes a dynamic offense with a dynamic quarterback to take advantage. The other variable is, if Auburn is already out of bowl contention, what type of effort shows up? What type of scheming shows up? Four percent sounds about right, given the circumstances.