Breaking down Auburn basketball's entire season by win probability
AUBURN — It’s basketball season. And I know it’s also football season, but it’s also basketball season in Auburn, Alabama.
Bruce Pearl generally doesn’t like to do much media in the month of October because he wants the football program to have the attention until his season starts. However, given the state of the basketball program, that’s an impossibility at this point.
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SEC Media Days is happening today in Birmingham, Ala., with Auburn Live’s own Ellie Oldham there to bring you coverage. The opener against George Mason is weeks away. The media just released preseason predictions, in which they chose Kentucky to win the league (shocker), followed by Arkansas, Tennessee and Auburn.
No Auburn players were selected to the preseason first or second all-conference teams. That didn’t surprise Pearl, by the way.
With the season only weeks away, it’s time to dive into the Tigers’ schedule and talk about some expectations for this team after Jabari Smith and Walker Kessler moved on to the NBA.
Torvik analytics run by Bart Torvik is one of the top analytics websites in college basketball. Here’s Auburn’s schedule ranked by win probability according to barttorvik.com.
90-99% chance of winning
Winthrop, Texas Southern, Georgia State: All non-conference games with Auburn projected to win by nearly 20 points in each contest.
80-89% chance of winning
George Mason, South Florida, Colgate, Mississippi State, Georgia: Three non-conference home games, plus two home games against weaker SEC competition. Auburn has won four straight against Mississippi State, and two straight against Georgia.
70-79% chance of winning
Bradley, Saint Louis, at Georgia, Alabama, Missouri, Ole Miss: The Tigers have only lost once to Alabama at home in the last six meetings, and that was the COVID year with Auburn’s worst team in five seasons. Auburn swept Alabama last season.
60-69% chance of winning
Florida, Arkansas, at South Carolina, Texas A&M: Auburn has lost three straight to Arkansas, including going 2-2 at home in the last four meetings. After losing 11 straight to Florida, the Tigers are 3-3 in the last six, including two of the last three at home. And Texas A&M was actually ranked No. 26 in the preseason AP poll based on receiving votes.
50-59% chance of winning
Memphis (in Atlanta), at Washington, at LSU, at Vanderbilt, Tennessee: The Tigers beat Memphis, 74-71, in Atlanta during the COVID year (led by freshman Justin Powell, which is odd looking back). Auburn’s only meeting with Washington was during the 2018-19 season, in which the Tigers ran away with a 88-66 win. And that Tennessee game will be the regular season finale.
40-49% chance of winning
at Southern Cal, at Ole Miss, at Alabama: Southern Cal received votes in the AP poll, while Auburn is 2-2 in their last four games at both Ole Miss and Alabama, turning those visits into virtual toss-ups lately.
30-39% chance of winning
at West Virginia, at Texas A&M: West Virginia plays a style that will give Auburn trouble, and Morgantown is never an easy place to play. And since Pearl arrived at Auburn, he’s 3-8 against Texas A&M, with one win in Auburn, one win in College Station, and one win in Nashville.
20-29% chance of winning
at Tennessee, at Kentucky: No real surprise. Tennessee and Kentucky are two of the top three teams in the league, both are contenders to make serious runs in March. Auburn lost at Tennessee last season, and has only won twice in Lexington in the history of the series.
Auburn’s projected record
According to the preseason analytics, Auburn projects to start the season 9-0 before the two-game west coast road swing at USC and Washington. Those will be pivotal non-conference road games, with the Tigers entering conference play with one loss. Torvik projects Auburn to finish 10-8 (or 12-6) in conference play, with games against Tennessee, Arkansas, LSU, Texas A&M being virtual toss-ups.
Auburn’s best players
According to the preseason analytics, Johni Broome, Wendell Green Jr. and K.D. Johnson will be the Tigers’ most productive players, in that order. That trio is followed by Dylan Cardwell, Jaylin Williams, Zep Jasper, Lior Berman, Chris Moore, Allen Flanigan and Stretch Akingbola, per the analytics. Broome and Cardwell will be extremely strong defensively for Auburn, while Green Jr. and Johnson will cause problems on defense with steals, with Green Jr. expected to be among the nation’s best in assists per game.
Expect Yohan Traore and Chance Westry to be among Auburn’s top six players by the end of the season, with Tre Donaldson fitting inside that top ten. Flanigan, more healthy, also has an opportunity to find his role and elevate his contributions.
