ESPN analytics break down Auburn's upcoming season, chances to earn bowl eligibility

AUBURN — ESPN’s Football Power Index thinks Auburn is a top-40 football team entering the 2023 season. The Tigers rank No. 39 in the first FPI of the year. That’s good for 11th in the SEC, one spot ahead of Missouri for 12th in the league.

ESPN’s FPI predicts Auburn to win 5.8 games and lose 6.2 games. The FPI gives Auburn a 58 percent chance of winning six games.

Alabama, Georgia and LSU rank 2nd, 3rd and 4th in the initial rankings. Tennessee ranks 12th, Ole Miss ranks 16th, Florida ranks 18th, Texas A&M ranks 19th, Kentucky ranks 28th, Arkansas ranks 30th, Mississippi State ranks 32nd, Missouri ranks 40th, South Carolina ranks 42nd and Vanderbilt ranks 73rd.

Here’s a game-by-game analysis of Auburn’s season according to the FPI:

September 2 vs. UMass: 97 percent chance to win

— Who will start at quarterback in Auburn’s season opener and Hugh Freeze’s first game? It shouldn’t matter against UMass.

September 9 at Cal: 44 percent chance to win

— What an odd second game of the Freeze tenure, with the Tigers traveling to Berkeley, Calif. for a non-conference game. Difficult task in week two in the first road test for a new-look coaching staff and team.

September 16 vs. Samford: 98 percent chance to win

— If Auburn can enter this game 2-0, they should build momentum with a third straight win before starting SEC play.

September 23 at Texas A&M: 24 percent chance to win

— The Aggies have more talent, but haven’t proven overly dominant under Jimbo Fisher. Carnell Williams and Co. knocked off the reeling Aggies last season at the end of the season. Bobby Petrino returns to the SEC calling plays for A&M.

September 30 vs. Georgia: 9 percent chance to win

— Freeze’s first major test against arguably the nation’s best team and a rival that’s completely dominated Auburn over the last ~15 years. How long can Auburn hang?

October 14 at LSU: 14 percent chance to win

— Auburn surrendered a 17-0 first-half lead to LSU last season, ultimately losing 21-17. LSU will be more talented and more settled in their identity under Brian Kelly this time around.

October 21 vs. Ole Miss: 34 percent chance to win

— Bryan Harsin’s only signature win was beating Lane Kiffin and top-10 Ole Miss at home two seasons ago. The Tigers fought hard last season, but gave up 500-plus rushing yards in a loss. Kiffin’s return to Auburn against Freeze will have plenty of other storylines, too.

October 28 vs. Mississippi State: 55 percent chance to win

— In Carnell Williams’ first game as interim head coach last season, Auburn erased a 24-6 halftime deficit, outscoring State 27-9 in the second half. The Tigers lost in overtime. Will Rogers is back for the Bulldogs under new head coach Zach Arnett.

November 4 at Vanderbilt: 69 percent chance to win

— This is currently Auburn’s best chance for a SEC win. Vanderbilt started to play better late last season, going 2-2 in a four-game span in conference before losing to Tennessee 56-0 to end the season.

November 11 at Arkansas: 33 percent chance to win

— Auburn was crushed in this matchup last fall, leading to Harsin’s firing two days later.

November 18 vs. New Mexico State: 96 percent chance to win

— The usual non-conference game before Alabama this season brings the Aggies to town. It’s a “get right” game after two straight road conference games and leading into the Iron Bowl.

November 25 vs. Alabama: 9 percent chance to win

— Alabama will be far more talented, but by season’s end Freeze and Co. have created semblance of an offensive identity, this could be closer than the experts think.