Hoops primer: No. 11 Auburn to host No. 16 LSU in primetime

Auburn plays LSU Wednesday night in Auburn Arena for the biggest game in both teams’ seasons up to this point.

No. 16 LSU (12-0) and No. 11 Auburn (11-1) are the top two teams in the SEC by many metrics and ranking services and also open SEC play against each other.

Despite the records, there are several questions about both of these teams—mainly LSU—that could cause the game to go way one or the other.

LSU has the No. 1 ranked defense in KenPom. A change from years past when Will Wade’s squads could score all over everyone but couldn’t stop a basket if the game depended on it. However, LSU hasn’t played any juggernaut teams.

The best team LSU has beat is No. 55 Belmont, followed by Penn State and Wake Forest. Not bad, but not great either.

[Bruce Pearl previews matchup with LSU]

LSU’s roster has a strong core, with a point guard Auburn fans might remember in Missouri transfer and former Auburn target Xavier Pinson. Eric Gaines—a rangey combo guard from Atlanta—also plays some point guard and handles some off ball duties for Wade.

Brandon Murray fills out LSU’s main guard rotation, giving the Tigers another long guard who can disrupt offense and is also a decent shooter. 

LSU’s front court—like Auburn’s—is the real pride of the Tigers. Tari Eason, Darius Days, and Efton Reid do most of the work on the interior while Mwani Wilkinson and Alex Fudge provide defense and rebounding as sort of tweeners at the wing position.

Days stole the show early on with 30 points (and eight threes) in LSU’s opening game against ULM. But since his return to the lineup, Eason has been LSU’s most dangerous player.

Eason currently holds six game MVP awards and was even ranked in the KenPom Player of the Year standings at one point this season. The 6-8 forward/center has been a key contributor on both sides for LSU, scoring 15+ points eight times in 12 games and also contributing as a man-defender and with defensive counting stats.

Defensive analytic juggernauts meeting up

As of Dec. 28, Auburn’s defense is ranked No. 10 in KenPom and LSU’s is No. 1.

Like Auburn, LSU’s defense is rooted in disruption. Wade’s squad is No. 4 in block percentage and No. 1 in steal percentage. However, they don’t force many non-steal turnovers with their brand of defense focusing on swarming man defense. LSU also uses its length and athleticism well, forcing bad shots and holding opponents to low points totals.

LSU’s guards press opposing teams full court and the Tigers employ a lot of traps and force steals for quick, uncontested buckets. The individual defenders for LSU are also versatile, and Wade’s squad will switch everything with some lineups.

Auburns’ defense is performing at a similar level. The Tigers are No. 4 in steal percentage and No. 16 in block percentage.

With LSU’s guards and defensive pressure, Auburn’s sure-handed ball handling will be as important as ever. Zep Jasper and Wendell Green have both had well documented and impressive assist to turnover ratios, but LSU’s length and athleticism has troubled many backcourts this season. 

Rebounding will be important for Auburn

Will Wade’s LSU teams aren’t known for their defense, but Wade will throw big, high energy bodies at other teams and wear them down on the interior. Save for his first year, Wade’s LSU teams have been ranked 9th, 15th, 66th, and 29th in offensive rebounding percentage. 

Auburn has crashed the glass well in years past, grabbing 18 and 16 offensive rebounds in the past two meetings. LSU matched Auburn with 18 offensive boards in the last meeting but outrebounded Auburn by 8.

LSU’s shooting problems

A weakness at times for LSU has been shooting. The Tigers have had good individual performances but also some bad team performances. Overall, LSU is No. 245 in three-point shooting percentage. If Auburn’s front court continues playing well and stays out of foul trouble, forcing things inside won’t be a viable option for LSU on a poor shooting night. Especially for a team who hasn’t seen a true road environment like it will see at Auburn.

Will Wade even talked about how he studied LSU players’ footwork to address shooting problems during Christmas break.

This will be LSU’s first away game and that’s after a season where no one played in front of any true crowds. LSU did play two neutral court games in Florida and played Georgia Tech in Atlanta but not at Georgia Tech’s home court.

Auburn can find success against LSU’s defense 

I like how Auburn matches up with LSU’s defense, even if Will Wade’s squad is playing real defense for once. The impressive assist-to-turnover ratios boasted by Auburn’s backcourt is one thing, but Auburn also has physical perimeter players such as KD Johnson and Allen Flanigan available to overpower some of LSU’s lengthy but smaller rotations.

Auburn also has better depth and can match LSU’s intensity. I think winning the turnover battle will be as important as any other in-game battle. It’s one of both teams’ biggest strengths, and Auburn matches up well on paper.

The front court battle will be interesting to watch. LSU definitely hasn’t seen a front court like Auburn’s, but Wade’s big men have also played like one of the best units in the SEC so far this season and have more experience.

Despite LSU’s rebounding and defensive strengths, Auburn will also have a size advantage in the front court and has the tools to win the battle down low.

Additional thoughts:

• LSU’s opening stretch of conference play is brutal. Hard to say what if any impact that will have on the Auburn/LSU game, but it might not help the game’s value in a few weeks.

Still laughing at LSU’s start to conference play: pic.twitter.com/JLXzYrBhve

— Jay Phillips (@aubawn) December 28, 2021

• Auburn is currently the highest ranked SEC team in the AP Poll.