What to Expect: 14-seed Auburn heads to 3-seed Oregon State, College World Series appearance on the line

Special to Auburn Live from Kevin Ives, A.K.A. Plainsman Parking Lot on Twitter. Kevin is an expert on the Auburn baseball program and is a contributor to Auburn Live.

AUBURN – Does College Baseball have a “complete team” in 2022? There are only a few this year that stand out.

They’ve been ranked consistently, they’ve played well consistently, and they’ve spent the majority of the season grinding away and casually rolling into the postseason. Most pundits would point toward Tennessee with their explosive offense, video game stats, and click-worthy antics as 2022’s elite. However, while the Vols get most of the headlines, college baseball’s other (and I’d argue more “complete” team hosts Auburn in a Super Regional: Oregon State.

To reduce it in automotive terms: if the Vols are a Tesla Roadster (flashy, fast, and seemingly the next evolution) then the Beavers are a Nissan Z (reliable, dependable, well-made, but not too flashy and you’d easily forget they were on the market).

Prior Planning Prevents Poor Performance. So, here’s your 5-P Primer on Oregon State:

Presenting: The Oregon State Beavers

The Beavers have been the class of the PAC-12 and College Baseball for a while. Especially in this century. With three College World Series Titles (06,07,18) and seven appearances, the Black and Orange have become standard bearers for “West Coast Baseball”. They’ve produced numerous MLB players, including Jacoby Ellsbury, Michael Conforto, Nick Madrigal, current savior of the Baltimore Orioles Adley Rutchsman, and Cleveland Guardians wunderkind Steven Kwan.

Auburn will make the 2,600-mile journey to Corvallis, Oregon to Goss Stadium and will face some cold and rainy temperatures and try to make history in the oldest-continuous ballpark in the Nation. Goss and Plainsman are similar in atmospheres and fan-bases but play markedly different. Goss is a tad deeper in center but other than that the dimensions are basically the same (including a little mini-monster 14-foot fence in the 330-depth left field). The biggest difference is the turf. So far this season, the Tigers have had to adjust to turf fields to mixed results. But it’s all fake grass at OSU with a lot of four territory outside of the baselines.

Previously

This is the first meeting on the Diamond between Oregon State and Auburn. In their Regionals, Oregon State was pushed to the limits in their opener against New Mexico State and finale vs Vanderbilt but came out none-the-worse. Auburn, meanwhile, turned national heads by steamrolling through one of the of the deepest regionals in impressive offensive fashion.

The Beavers and Tigers only share two common opponents this season with Auburn going 3-1 vs UCLA and Vanderbilt and Oregon State going 3-4 against those same Bruins and ‘Dores.

Playmakers for Auburn, Oregon State

The Beavers are led by a Golden Spikes Finalist in Cooper Hjerpe (pronounced Jer-p) with his lanky 6-3 frame, funky lefthanded delivery, and his big-game-Bob mindset. Hjerpe has done it all for Oregon State on the mound. He’s been a dominant starter, an unhittable reliever, and legitimate ace pedigree. He reminds most scouts of Chris Sale because of his arm-slot and high strikeout rate. He’ll feature a comfortable low-90s fastball with minimal sink but can bump a tad higher if need be. His slider is his devastator and the release and sweep of it can make left-handed batters look foolish. He doesn’t favor a plate side and will be one of the most polished prospects the Tigers have face all-season. In the Corvallis Regional last week, Hjerpe got a no-decision on Friday (6.2 ip with 3 er and 10ks) but was the difference-maker on Monday in the Championship. Hjerpe got his first save of the season and absolutely shut down the Dores over the final two innings (2 ip / 1 bb / 0 h / 5 ks).

Offensively, Oregon State is led by Jacob Melton. The talented outfielder is a true power (16 HRs) and speed (21 steals) combination and an absolute stalwart in cleanup. The PAC-12 Player of the Year, Melton leads boasts an impressive slash of .360/.422/.668 and rounds out an offense that can be just relentless in pounding out hits and drawing walks. The Beavers have some an absolutely incredible plate discipline and don’t chase junk. They grind out at-bats and aren’t one-dimensional.

But what really makes OSU a “complete team” is most senses of the word is their bullpen. They spread innings out are led by USC-Upstate (and Alpharetta, GA native) Ben Ferrer. Ferrer has been their most reliable bullpen arms all season, boasting a 1.82 ERA and 75 strikeouts (while being number 3 in innings pitched on the team). Ferrer and Hjerpe both have sub-100 WHiPs and are the biggest standouts on the mound. Ferrer, combined with Mitchell Verburg, Reid Sebby, DJ Carpenter, “closer” Ryan Brown make up a formidable, talented, and experienced bullpen that have helped propel Oregon State to a 47-16 record and consistent Top 10 ranking all-season.

Preview

For Auburn, the key to this weekend is going to be the offense. I have faith Auburn can outslug the Beavers and while I have hope they can outpitch them too, the bats are going to carry Auburn to Omaha. The Tigers turned national heads with their offensive explosion that came after limping into the post-season and some sub-par performances. The biggest difference? Cole Foster. Sonny DiChiara and Blake Rambusch get most of the offensive headlines, but the Plano Punisher had a Friday to remember and held down a lineup that hit bombs, hit for average, and hit their way to a regional title. You could see the impact he had by being back in the lineup.

For Tigers to have success against the talented arms of OSU, it’s going to take patience. Hjerpe is especially deceptive but if Auburn takes the same approach they took against Florida State, then they should be in the right mindset. The biggest thing is to extend at-bats when they can and take what Oregon State gives you. They’ll give you stuff to hit; you just have to make the most of those chances. On the mound for Auburn, it’s all about attacking and staying consistent. OSU won’t chase junk and will try to draw a ton of walks. Letting the Tiger defense work and focusing on command over strikeouts will go a long way. Nate LaRue can be a difference maker for Auburn. When OSU gets on, they will want to run. If Auburn pitchers are wild? There is a huge amount of ground to cover on the backstop. LaRue will get tested and worked but I know he’s up to the task.

Plainly put, the Oregon State bats can be shut down. Especially if you can limit the damage of their 1-4 hitters. In the majority of their losses, OSU was top-heavy offensively and the bottom half of the lineup absolutely killed any momentum or rallies they were trying to muster. For Auburn, set the tone on the mound early and don’t panic.

Prediction? Auburn, slightly

I can’t pick against the Tigers. Especially not now. I say the Super Regional goes the full three games (with two classic tight games Saturday and Sunday and the Monday Championship being a wacky offensive affair in the Tigers favor) and sending Auburn to Omaha.

Although I’d love to be proven wrong, I’d expect Hjerpe to have a showcase in his start (presumably Saturday) and the Tigers keep it close but OSU on top in Game One. Then the pressure is on the Tigers. But one huge key this season is how Auburn has responded after losses. They just haven’t lost many consecutive games (I’d have to double check, but I think it’s only happened three times this season). However, even if Auburn starts off 0-1 in the Regional, you have to feel good about evening it up with Joseph Gonzalez in the rubber game. Gonzalez and his consistency have been a steadying point for the Auburn pitching staff in their late push and his strengths (especially if his sinker is working in a plus fashion) can limit any offense.

That sets up that Championship game. If Mason Barnett can repeat his performance last weekend, then Auburn can romp. If he struggles, then we’ll probably see a back and forth affair.

Ultimately though, I’m all Auburn, so I’m picking the Tigers to come out on top.