Game-by-game predictions for the Gators' 2022 season from ESPN's FPI
The Gators are almost two weeks away from the start of training camp for the 2022 football season, which opens in The Swamp against Pac-12 champion Utah.
Florida had its second losing record in five years last fall, finishing 6-7. ESPN’s Football Power Index has projected UF’s inaugural season under coach Billy Napier.
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The Gators currently rank No. 29 in the FPI, a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward. Based on 20,000 simulations of the season, the results represent how many points above or below average a team is.
Here is a breakdown of the Gators’ game-by-game predictions for this fall, including odds against the opponent and a running record tally.
Sept. 3 vs. Utah Utes
Win Probability: 52.1%
Projected Record: 1-0
Sept. 10 vs. Kentucky Wildcats
Win Probability: 51.1%
Projected Record: 2-0
Sept. 17 vs. South Florida Bulls
Win Probability: 87.7%
Projected Record: 3-0
Sept. 24 at Tennessee Volunteers
Win Probability: 39.8%
Projected Record: 3-1
Oct. 1 vs. Eastern Washington Eagles
Win Probability: 96.9%
Projected Record: 4-1
Oct. 8 vs. Missouri Tigers (Homecoming)
Win Probability: 78.3%
Projected Record: 5-1
Oct. 15 vs. LSU Tigers
Win Probability: 44.7%
Projected Record: 5-2
Oct. 29 vs. Georgia (Jacksonville)
Win Probability: 9.6%
Projected Record: 5-3
Nov. 5 at Texas A&M Aggies
Win Probability: 29.7%
Projected Record: 5-4
Nov. 12 vs. South Carolina Gamecocks
Win Probability: 69.9%
Projected Record: 6-4
Nov. 19 at Vanderbilt Commodores
Win Probability: 86.8%
Projected Record: 7-4
Nov. 25 (Friday) at Florida State Seminoles
Win Probability: 43.3%
Projected Record: 7-5
Florida’s 2022 projection: 7-5
Highest win probability: vs. Eastern Washinton (96.9%)
Lowest win probability: vs. Georgia (9.6%)
Toss-up games: Utah (52.1%), Kentucky (51.1%)
Chance of winning division: 2.4%
Chance of winning conference: 0.3%
Chance of making playoffs: 0%
